Classification and Regression Tree Analysis of Clinical Patterns that Predict Survival in 127 Chinese Patients with Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Treated by Gefitinib Who Failed to Previous Chemotherapy

• Main Authors: Ziping WANG, Jihong GUO, Yan WANG, Yutao LIU, Juan YANG
• Format: Article
• Language: zho
• Published: Chinese Anti-Cancer Association; Chinese Antituberculosis Association 2011-09-01
• Series: Chinese Journal of Lung Cancer
• Subjects: Lung neoplasms; Gefitinib; Classification and regression tree (CART)
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.3779/j.issn.1009-3419.2011.09.04
• ISSN: 1009-3419; 1999-6187

Background and objective It has been proven that gefitinib produces only 10%-20% tumor regression in heavily pretreated, unselected non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients as the second- and third-line setting. Asian, female, nonsmokers and adenocarcinoma are favorable factors; however, it is difficult to find a patient satisfying all the above clinical characteristics. The aim of this study is to identify novel predicting factors, and to explore the interactions between clinical variables and their impact on the survival of Chinese patients with advanced NSCLC who were heavily treated with gefitinib in the second- or third-line setting. Methods The clinical and follow-up data of 127 advanced NSCLC patients referred to the Cancer Hospital & Institute, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences from March 2005 to March 2010 were analyzed. Multivariate analysis of progression-free survival (PFS) was performed using recursive partitioning, which is referred to as the classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Results The median PFS of 127 eligible consecutive advanced NSCLC patients was 8.0 months (95%CI: 5.8-10.2). CART was performed with an initial split on first-line chemotherapy outcomes and a second split on patients’ age. Three terminal subgroups were formed. The median PFS of the three subsets ranged from 1.0 month (95%CI: 0.8-1.2) for those with progressive disease outcome after the first-line chemotherapy subgroup, 10 months (95%CI: 7.0-13.0) in patients with a partial response or stable disease in first-line chemotherapy and age <70, and 22.0 months for patients obtaining a partial response or stable disease in first-line chemotherapy at age 70-81 (95%CI: 3.8-40.1). Conclusion Partial response, stable disease in first-line chemotherapy and age ≥ 70 are closely correlated with long-term survival treated by gefitinib as a second- or third-line setting in advanced NSCLC. CART can be used to identify previously unappreciated patient subsets and is a useful method for dissecting complex clinical situations. Moreover, CART can be used to identify homogeneous patient populations in clinical practice and future clinical trials.