An Analysis of Conditional Dependencies of Covariance Matrices for Economic Processes in Selected EU Countries

• Main Author: Janiga-Ćmiel Anna
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Sciendo 2016-12-01
• Series: Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia
• Subjects: garch model; contagion effect; economic development; c01; c32; c51
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1515/foli-2016-0029

The paper looks at the issues related to the research on and assessment of the contagion effect. Based on several examinations of two selected EU countries, Poland paired with one of the EU member states; it presents the interaction between their economic development. A DCC-GARCH model constructed for the purpose of the study was used to generate a covariance matrix Ht, which enabled the calculation of correlation matrices Rt. The resulting variance vectors were used to present a linear correlation model on which a further analysis of the contagion effect was based. The aim of the study was to test a contagion effect among selected EU countries in the years 2000–2014. The transmission channel under study was the GDP of a selected country. The empirical studies confirmed the existence of the contagion effect between the economic development of the Polish and selected EU economies.