Schistosomiasis risk mapping in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, using a decision tree approach, remote sensing data and sociological indicators

• Main Authors: Flávia T Martins-Bedê, Luciano V Dutra, Corina C Freitas, Ricardo JPS Guimarães, Ronaldo S Amaral, Sandra C Drummond, Omar S Carvalho
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Ministério da Saúde 2010-07-01
• Series: Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz.
• Subjects: schistosomiasis; risk mapping; public health; decision tree
• Online Access: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0074-02762010000400033
• ISSN: 0074-0276; 1678-8060

Schistosomiasis mansoni is not just a physical disease, but is related to social and behavioural factors as well. Snails of the Biomphalaria genus are an intermediate host for Schistosoma mansoni and infect humans through water. The objective of this study is to classify the risk of schistosomiasis in the state of Minas Gerais (MG). We focus on socioeconomic and demographic features, basic sanitation features, the presence of accumulated water bodies, dense vegetation in the summer and winter seasons and related terrain characteristics. We draw on the decision tree approach to infection risk modelling and mapping. The model robustness was properly verified. The main variables that were selected by the procedure included the terrain's water accumulation capacity, temperature extremes and the Human Development Index. In addition, the model was used to generate two maps, one that included risk classification for the entire of MG and another that included classification errors. The resulting map was 62.9% accurate.