Trends in life expectancy and age-specific mortality in England and Wales, 1970–2016, in comparison with a set of 22 high-income countries: an analysis of vital statistics data
Summary: Background: Since 2010, the rate of improvement in life expectancy in the UK has slowed. We aimed to put this trend in the context of changes over the long term and in relation to a group of other high-income countries. Methods: We compared sex-specific trends in life expectancy since 1970...
Main Authors: | , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Elsevier
2019-11-01
|
Series: | The Lancet Public Health |
Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246826671930177X |
id |
doaj-051fdb44116c463486c5878dff466228 |
---|---|
record_format |
Article |
spelling |
doaj-051fdb44116c463486c5878dff4662282020-11-25T01:06:05ZengElsevierThe Lancet Public Health2468-26672019-11-01411e575e582Trends in life expectancy and age-specific mortality in England and Wales, 1970–2016, in comparison with a set of 22 high-income countries: an analysis of vital statistics dataDavid A Leon, ProfPhD0Dmitry A Jdanov, PhD1Vladimir M Shkolnikov, PhD2Department of Non-communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Community Medicine, UiT Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway; Correspondence to: Prof David A Leon, Department of Non-communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UKLaboratory of Demographic Data, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany; International Laboratory for Population and Health, Higher School of Economics, Moscow, RussiaLaboratory of Demographic Data, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany; International Laboratory for Population and Health, Higher School of Economics, Moscow, RussiaSummary: Background: Since 2010, the rate of improvement in life expectancy in the UK has slowed. We aimed to put this trend in the context of changes over the long term and in relation to a group of other high-income countries. Methods: We compared sex-specific trends in life expectancy since 1970 and age-specific mortality in England and Wales with median values for 22 high-income countries (in western Europe, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, and the USA). We used annual mortality data (1970–2016) from the Human Mortality Database. Findings: Until 2011–16, male life expectancy in England and Wales followed the median life expectancy of the comparator group. By contrast, female life expectancy was below the median and is among the lowest of the countries considered. In 2011–16, the rate of improvement in life expectancy slowed sharply for both sexes in England and Wales, and slowed more moderately in the comparator group because of negative trends in all adult age groups. This deceleration resulted in a widening gap between England and Wales and the comparators from 2011 onwards. Since the mid-2000s, for the first time, mortality rates in England and Wales among people aged 25–50 years were appreciably higher than in the comparator group. Interpretation: Although many countries have seen slower increases in life expectancy since 2011, trends in England and Wales are among the worst. The poor performance of female life expectancy over the long-term is in part driven by the relative timing of the smoking epidemic across countries. The previously overlooked higher mortality among young working-age adults in England and Wales relative to other countries deserves urgent attention. Funding: None.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246826671930177X |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
David A Leon, ProfPhD Dmitry A Jdanov, PhD Vladimir M Shkolnikov, PhD |
spellingShingle |
David A Leon, ProfPhD Dmitry A Jdanov, PhD Vladimir M Shkolnikov, PhD Trends in life expectancy and age-specific mortality in England and Wales, 1970–2016, in comparison with a set of 22 high-income countries: an analysis of vital statistics data The Lancet Public Health |
author_facet |
David A Leon, ProfPhD Dmitry A Jdanov, PhD Vladimir M Shkolnikov, PhD |
author_sort |
David A Leon, ProfPhD |
title |
Trends in life expectancy and age-specific mortality in England and Wales, 1970–2016, in comparison with a set of 22 high-income countries: an analysis of vital statistics data |
title_short |
Trends in life expectancy and age-specific mortality in England and Wales, 1970–2016, in comparison with a set of 22 high-income countries: an analysis of vital statistics data |
title_full |
Trends in life expectancy and age-specific mortality in England and Wales, 1970–2016, in comparison with a set of 22 high-income countries: an analysis of vital statistics data |
title_fullStr |
Trends in life expectancy and age-specific mortality in England and Wales, 1970–2016, in comparison with a set of 22 high-income countries: an analysis of vital statistics data |
title_full_unstemmed |
Trends in life expectancy and age-specific mortality in England and Wales, 1970–2016, in comparison with a set of 22 high-income countries: an analysis of vital statistics data |
title_sort |
trends in life expectancy and age-specific mortality in england and wales, 1970–2016, in comparison with a set of 22 high-income countries: an analysis of vital statistics data |
publisher |
Elsevier |
series |
The Lancet Public Health |
issn |
2468-2667 |
publishDate |
2019-11-01 |
description |
Summary: Background: Since 2010, the rate of improvement in life expectancy in the UK has slowed. We aimed to put this trend in the context of changes over the long term and in relation to a group of other high-income countries. Methods: We compared sex-specific trends in life expectancy since 1970 and age-specific mortality in England and Wales with median values for 22 high-income countries (in western Europe, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, and the USA). We used annual mortality data (1970–2016) from the Human Mortality Database. Findings: Until 2011–16, male life expectancy in England and Wales followed the median life expectancy of the comparator group. By contrast, female life expectancy was below the median and is among the lowest of the countries considered. In 2011–16, the rate of improvement in life expectancy slowed sharply for both sexes in England and Wales, and slowed more moderately in the comparator group because of negative trends in all adult age groups. This deceleration resulted in a widening gap between England and Wales and the comparators from 2011 onwards. Since the mid-2000s, for the first time, mortality rates in England and Wales among people aged 25–50 years were appreciably higher than in the comparator group. Interpretation: Although many countries have seen slower increases in life expectancy since 2011, trends in England and Wales are among the worst. The poor performance of female life expectancy over the long-term is in part driven by the relative timing of the smoking epidemic across countries. The previously overlooked higher mortality among young working-age adults in England and Wales relative to other countries deserves urgent attention. Funding: None. |
url |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246826671930177X |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT davidaleonprofphd trendsinlifeexpectancyandagespecificmortalityinenglandandwales19702016incomparisonwithasetof22highincomecountriesananalysisofvitalstatisticsdata AT dmitryajdanovphd trendsinlifeexpectancyandagespecificmortalityinenglandandwales19702016incomparisonwithasetof22highincomecountriesananalysisofvitalstatisticsdata AT vladimirmshkolnikovphd trendsinlifeexpectancyandagespecificmortalityinenglandandwales19702016incomparisonwithasetof22highincomecountriesananalysisofvitalstatisticsdata |
_version_ |
1725191611325874176 |