Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields
Changes in agricultural yields due to climate change will affect land use, agricultural production volume, and food prices as well as macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, which is important as it enables one to compare climate change impacts across multiple sectors. This study considered five key...
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doaj-06038c8fbc7d49eaa245fdac512cb3632020-11-24T23:08:34ZengMDPI AGSustainability2071-10502018-10-011010367310.3390/su10103673su10103673Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop YieldsShinichiro Fujimori0Toshichika Iizumi1Tomoko Hasegawa2Jun’ya Takakura3Kiyoshi Takahashi4Yasuaki Hijioka5Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto 615-8540, JapanInstitute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Research Organization, Tsukuba 305-8604, JapanCenter for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 305-8506, JapanCenter for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 305-8506, JapanCenter for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 305-8506, JapanCenter for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 305-8506, JapanChanges in agricultural yields due to climate change will affect land use, agricultural production volume, and food prices as well as macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, which is important as it enables one to compare climate change impacts across multiple sectors. This study considered five key uncertainty factors and estimated macroeconomic impacts due to crop yield changes using a novel integrated assessment framework. The five factors are (1) land-use change (or yield aggregation method based on spatially explicit information), (2) the amplitude of the CO2 fertilization effect, (3) the use of different climate models, (4) socioeconomic assumptions and (5) the level of mitigation stringency. We found that their global impacts on the macroeconomic indicator value were 0.02–0.06% of GDP in 2100. However, the impacts on the agricultural sector varied greatly by socioeconomic assumption. The relative contributions of these factors to the total uncertainty in the projected macroeconomic indicator value were greater in a pessimistic world scenario characterized by a large population size, low income, and low yield development than in an optimistic scenario characterized by a small population size, high income, and high yield development (0.00%).http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/10/3673agricultural impactsclimate change impactsintegrated assessment modelCGE model |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Shinichiro Fujimori Toshichika Iizumi Tomoko Hasegawa Jun’ya Takakura Kiyoshi Takahashi Yasuaki Hijioka |
spellingShingle |
Shinichiro Fujimori Toshichika Iizumi Tomoko Hasegawa Jun’ya Takakura Kiyoshi Takahashi Yasuaki Hijioka Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields Sustainability agricultural impacts climate change impacts integrated assessment model CGE model |
author_facet |
Shinichiro Fujimori Toshichika Iizumi Tomoko Hasegawa Jun’ya Takakura Kiyoshi Takahashi Yasuaki Hijioka |
author_sort |
Shinichiro Fujimori |
title |
Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields |
title_short |
Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields |
title_full |
Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields |
title_fullStr |
Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields |
title_full_unstemmed |
Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Driven by Changes in Crop Yields |
title_sort |
macroeconomic impacts of climate change driven by changes in crop yields |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Sustainability |
issn |
2071-1050 |
publishDate |
2018-10-01 |
description |
Changes in agricultural yields due to climate change will affect land use, agricultural production volume, and food prices as well as macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, which is important as it enables one to compare climate change impacts across multiple sectors. This study considered five key uncertainty factors and estimated macroeconomic impacts due to crop yield changes using a novel integrated assessment framework. The five factors are (1) land-use change (or yield aggregation method based on spatially explicit information), (2) the amplitude of the CO2 fertilization effect, (3) the use of different climate models, (4) socioeconomic assumptions and (5) the level of mitigation stringency. We found that their global impacts on the macroeconomic indicator value were 0.02–0.06% of GDP in 2100. However, the impacts on the agricultural sector varied greatly by socioeconomic assumption. The relative contributions of these factors to the total uncertainty in the projected macroeconomic indicator value were greater in a pessimistic world scenario characterized by a large population size, low income, and low yield development than in an optimistic scenario characterized by a small population size, high income, and high yield development (0.00%). |
topic |
agricultural impacts climate change impacts integrated assessment model CGE model |
url |
http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/10/3673 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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1725613551577464832 |