On the predictability of ice avalanches
The velocity of unstable large ice masses from hanging glaciers increases as a power-law function of time prior to failure. This characteristic acceleration presents a finite-time singularity at the theoretical time of failure and can be used to forecast the time of glacier collapse. However, the no...
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Copernicus Publications
2005-01-01
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Series: | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
Online Access: | http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/12/849/2005/npg-12-849-2005.pdf |
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doaj-064a16a62d8b48c2a4c803d0a4b1d7312020-11-25T02:25:19ZengCopernicus PublicationsNonlinear Processes in Geophysics1023-58091607-79462005-01-01126849861On the predictability of ice avalanchesA. PralongC. BirrerW. A. StahelM. FunkThe velocity of unstable large ice masses from hanging glaciers increases as a power-law function of time prior to failure. This characteristic acceleration presents a finite-time singularity at the theoretical time of failure and can be used to forecast the time of glacier collapse. However, the non-linearity of the power-law function makes the prediction difficult. The effects of the non-linearity on the predictability of a failure are analyzed using a non-linear regression method. Predictability strongly depends on the time window when the measurements are performed. Log-periodic oscillations have been observed to be superimposed on the motion of large unstable ice masses. The value of their amplitude, frequency and phase are observed to be spatially homogeneous over the whole unstable ice mass. Inclusion of a respective term in the function describing the acceleration of unstable ice masses greatly increases the accuracy of the prediction.http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/12/849/2005/npg-12-849-2005.pdf |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
A. Pralong C. Birrer W. A. Stahel M. Funk |
spellingShingle |
A. Pralong C. Birrer W. A. Stahel M. Funk On the predictability of ice avalanches Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
author_facet |
A. Pralong C. Birrer W. A. Stahel M. Funk |
author_sort |
A. Pralong |
title |
On the predictability of ice avalanches |
title_short |
On the predictability of ice avalanches |
title_full |
On the predictability of ice avalanches |
title_fullStr |
On the predictability of ice avalanches |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the predictability of ice avalanches |
title_sort |
on the predictability of ice avalanches |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
series |
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
issn |
1023-5809 1607-7946 |
publishDate |
2005-01-01 |
description |
The velocity of unstable large ice masses from hanging glaciers increases as a power-law function of time prior to failure. This characteristic acceleration presents a finite-time singularity at the theoretical time of failure and can be used to forecast the time of glacier collapse. However, the non-linearity of the power-law function makes the prediction difficult. The effects of the non-linearity on the predictability of a failure are analyzed using a non-linear regression method. Predictability strongly depends on the time window when the measurements are performed. Log-periodic oscillations have been observed to be superimposed on the motion of large unstable ice masses. The value of their amplitude, frequency and phase are observed to be spatially homogeneous over the whole unstable ice mass. Inclusion of a respective term in the function describing the acceleration of unstable ice masses greatly increases the accuracy of the prediction. |
url |
http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/12/849/2005/npg-12-849-2005.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT apralong onthepredictabilityoficeavalanches AT cbirrer onthepredictabilityoficeavalanches AT wastahel onthepredictabilityoficeavalanches AT mfunk onthepredictabilityoficeavalanches |
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1724851720379432960 |