Projections up to 2100 and a budget optimisation strategy towards cervical cancer elimination in China: a modelling study
Summary: Background: The incidence of cervical cancer in China is increasing rapidly. We aimed to forecast the age-standardised incidence of cervical cancer in China up to 2100, and to determine the optimal strategy to eliminate cervical cancer under different budget scenarios. Methods: In our mode...
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Elsevier
2019-09-01
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Series: | The Lancet Public Health |
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English |
format |
Article |
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DOAJ |
author |
Changfa Xia, MPH Shangying Hu, PhD Xiaoqian Xu, MPH Xuelian Zhao, MPH Youlin Qiao, ProfPhD Nathalie Broutet, PhD Karen Canfell, ProfDPhil Raymond Hutubessy, PhD Fanghui Zhao, ProfPhD |
spellingShingle |
Changfa Xia, MPH Shangying Hu, PhD Xiaoqian Xu, MPH Xuelian Zhao, MPH Youlin Qiao, ProfPhD Nathalie Broutet, PhD Karen Canfell, ProfDPhil Raymond Hutubessy, PhD Fanghui Zhao, ProfPhD Projections up to 2100 and a budget optimisation strategy towards cervical cancer elimination in China: a modelling study The Lancet Public Health |
author_facet |
Changfa Xia, MPH Shangying Hu, PhD Xiaoqian Xu, MPH Xuelian Zhao, MPH Youlin Qiao, ProfPhD Nathalie Broutet, PhD Karen Canfell, ProfDPhil Raymond Hutubessy, PhD Fanghui Zhao, ProfPhD |
author_sort |
Changfa Xia, MPH |
title |
Projections up to 2100 and a budget optimisation strategy towards cervical cancer elimination in China: a modelling study |
title_short |
Projections up to 2100 and a budget optimisation strategy towards cervical cancer elimination in China: a modelling study |
title_full |
Projections up to 2100 and a budget optimisation strategy towards cervical cancer elimination in China: a modelling study |
title_fullStr |
Projections up to 2100 and a budget optimisation strategy towards cervical cancer elimination in China: a modelling study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projections up to 2100 and a budget optimisation strategy towards cervical cancer elimination in China: a modelling study |
title_sort |
projections up to 2100 and a budget optimisation strategy towards cervical cancer elimination in china: a modelling study |
publisher |
Elsevier |
series |
The Lancet Public Health |
issn |
2468-2667 |
publishDate |
2019-09-01 |
description |
Summary: Background: The incidence of cervical cancer in China is increasing rapidly. We aimed to forecast the age-standardised incidence of cervical cancer in China up to 2100, and to determine the optimal strategy to eliminate cervical cancer under different budget scenarios. Methods: In our modelling study, we developed an adapted and calibrated hybrid model to estimate the incidence of cervical cancer in urban and rural China until 2100. All 1·15 billion Chinese women living or projected to live during 2015–2100, under the projected trends in ageing, urbanisation, and sexual activity were considered. We assessed several scenarios of budget constraints (a current budget [2012–18], twice the current budget, and no budget constraints), implementation of human papillomavirus vaccination (with different target populations and coverage), and cervical cancer screening characteristics (with different target ages, screening intervals, and coverage). We used a budget optimisation process to select the best available combinations of vaccination and screening. The primary outcomes were the annual incidence of cervical cancer in 2015–2100, and the year of elimination (the first year in which the incidence was expected to be lower than four new cases per 100 000 women). Findings: Under the current strategy, by 2100, the age-standardised incidence of cervical cancer is projected to increase to three times the incidence in 2015. However, if China adopts an optimal strategy under the current budget from 2020 onwards (namely, introducing vaccination of 95% coverage for girls aged 12 years, and expanding coverage of once in a lifetime screening for women aged 45 years of 90% in urban areas and 33% in rural areas), the annual age-standardised incidence of cervical cancer is predicted to decrease to fewer than four new cases per 100 000 women (ie, elimination) by 2072 (95% CI 2070–74) in urban China and 2074 (2072–76) in rural China. If the current budget were doubled from 2020 onwards, elimination would be achieved by 2063 (2059–66) in urban China and 2069 (2066–71) in rural China. The earliest possible year of cervical cancer elimination would be 2057 (2053–60) in urban China and 2060 (2057–63) in rural China, if vaccination coverage for girls aged 12 years and coverage of screening at 5-year intervals for women aged 35–64 years was maximised, with no budgetary restrictions. Interpretation: Cervical cancer incidence in China will continue to increase under current cervical cancer prevention strategies. However, under our budget optimisation strategy from 2020 onwards, cervical cancer could be eliminated as a public health problem by the early 2070s. Elimination could be achieved by the late 2050s by increasing the budget towards vaccination against human papillomavirus and cervical cancer screening. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China and Chinese Academy of Medical Science Initiative for Innovative Medicine. |
url |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468266719301628 |
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doaj-0a6bc4eaf8924549b1bdbea14d20397c2020-11-25T02:20:50ZengElsevierThe Lancet Public Health2468-26672019-09-0149e462e472Projections up to 2100 and a budget optimisation strategy towards cervical cancer elimination in China: a modelling studyChangfa Xia, MPH0Shangying Hu, PhD1Xiaoqian Xu, MPH2Xuelian Zhao, MPH3Youlin Qiao, ProfPhD4Nathalie Broutet, PhD5Karen Canfell, ProfDPhil6Raymond Hutubessy, PhD7Fanghui Zhao, ProfPhD8Department of Cancer Epidemiology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Cancer Epidemiology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Cancer Epidemiology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Cancer Epidemiology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Cancer Epidemiology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Reproductive Health and Research, Geneva, SwitzerlandCancer Research Division, Cancer Council New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, AustraliaDepartment of Immunization, Vaccines and Biologicals, World Health Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandDepartment of Cancer Epidemiology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China; Correspondence to: Prof Fanghui Zhao, Department of Cancer Epidemiology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100021, ChinaSummary: Background: The incidence of cervical cancer in China is increasing rapidly. We aimed to forecast the age-standardised incidence of cervical cancer in China up to 2100, and to determine the optimal strategy to eliminate cervical cancer under different budget scenarios. Methods: In our modelling study, we developed an adapted and calibrated hybrid model to estimate the incidence of cervical cancer in urban and rural China until 2100. All 1·15 billion Chinese women living or projected to live during 2015–2100, under the projected trends in ageing, urbanisation, and sexual activity were considered. We assessed several scenarios of budget constraints (a current budget [2012–18], twice the current budget, and no budget constraints), implementation of human papillomavirus vaccination (with different target populations and coverage), and cervical cancer screening characteristics (with different target ages, screening intervals, and coverage). We used a budget optimisation process to select the best available combinations of vaccination and screening. The primary outcomes were the annual incidence of cervical cancer in 2015–2100, and the year of elimination (the first year in which the incidence was expected to be lower than four new cases per 100 000 women). Findings: Under the current strategy, by 2100, the age-standardised incidence of cervical cancer is projected to increase to three times the incidence in 2015. However, if China adopts an optimal strategy under the current budget from 2020 onwards (namely, introducing vaccination of 95% coverage for girls aged 12 years, and expanding coverage of once in a lifetime screening for women aged 45 years of 90% in urban areas and 33% in rural areas), the annual age-standardised incidence of cervical cancer is predicted to decrease to fewer than four new cases per 100 000 women (ie, elimination) by 2072 (95% CI 2070–74) in urban China and 2074 (2072–76) in rural China. If the current budget were doubled from 2020 onwards, elimination would be achieved by 2063 (2059–66) in urban China and 2069 (2066–71) in rural China. The earliest possible year of cervical cancer elimination would be 2057 (2053–60) in urban China and 2060 (2057–63) in rural China, if vaccination coverage for girls aged 12 years and coverage of screening at 5-year intervals for women aged 35–64 years was maximised, with no budgetary restrictions. Interpretation: Cervical cancer incidence in China will continue to increase under current cervical cancer prevention strategies. However, under our budget optimisation strategy from 2020 onwards, cervical cancer could be eliminated as a public health problem by the early 2070s. Elimination could be achieved by the late 2050s by increasing the budget towards vaccination against human papillomavirus and cervical cancer screening. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China and Chinese Academy of Medical Science Initiative for Innovative Medicine.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468266719301628 |