Statistical-Observational Analysis of Skillful Oceanic Predictors of Heavy Daily Precipitation Events in the Sahel
In this paper, the sea surface temperature (SST) based statistical seasonal forecast model (S4CAST) is utilized to examine the spatial and temporal prediction skill of Sahel heavy and extreme daily precipitation events. As in previous studies, S4CAST points out the Mediterranean Sea and El Niño Sout...
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doaj-0acbc45bd7964bfdbcb84f35ef3151892020-11-25T03:10:35ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332020-06-011158458410.3390/atmos11060584Statistical-Observational Analysis of Skillful Oceanic Predictors of Heavy Daily Precipitation Events in the SahelMoussa Diakhaté0Roberto Suárez-Moreno1Iñigo Gómara2Elsa Mohino3École Supérieure des Sciences et Techniques de l’Ingénieur, Université Amadou Mahtar Mbow, Dakar 11000, SenegalLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USADepartamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, SpainDepartamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, SpainIn this paper, the sea surface temperature (SST) based statistical seasonal forecast model (S4CAST) is utilized to examine the spatial and temporal prediction skill of Sahel heavy and extreme daily precipitation events. As in previous studies, S4CAST points out the Mediterranean Sea and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the main drivers of Sahel heavy/extreme daily rainfall variability at interannual timescales (period 1982–2015). Overall, the Mediterranean Sea emerges as a seasonal short-term predictor of heavy daily rainfall (1 month in advance), while ENSO returns a longer forecast window (up to 3 months in advance). Regarding the spatial skill, the response of heavy daily rainfall to the Mediterranean SST forcing is significant over a widespread area of the Sahel. Contrastingly, with the ENSO forcing, the response is only significant over the southernmost Sahel area. These differences can be attributed to the distinct physical mechanisms mediating the analyzed SST-rainfall teleconnections. This paper provides fundamental elements to develop an operational statistical-seasonal forecasting system of Sahel heavy and extreme daily precipitation events.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/6/584West African Monsoonheavy precipitationextreme eventsteleconnectionssea surface temperaturesEl Niño Southern Oscillation |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Moussa Diakhaté Roberto Suárez-Moreno Iñigo Gómara Elsa Mohino |
spellingShingle |
Moussa Diakhaté Roberto Suárez-Moreno Iñigo Gómara Elsa Mohino Statistical-Observational Analysis of Skillful Oceanic Predictors of Heavy Daily Precipitation Events in the Sahel Atmosphere West African Monsoon heavy precipitation extreme events teleconnections sea surface temperatures El Niño Southern Oscillation |
author_facet |
Moussa Diakhaté Roberto Suárez-Moreno Iñigo Gómara Elsa Mohino |
author_sort |
Moussa Diakhaté |
title |
Statistical-Observational Analysis of Skillful Oceanic Predictors of Heavy Daily Precipitation Events in the Sahel |
title_short |
Statistical-Observational Analysis of Skillful Oceanic Predictors of Heavy Daily Precipitation Events in the Sahel |
title_full |
Statistical-Observational Analysis of Skillful Oceanic Predictors of Heavy Daily Precipitation Events in the Sahel |
title_fullStr |
Statistical-Observational Analysis of Skillful Oceanic Predictors of Heavy Daily Precipitation Events in the Sahel |
title_full_unstemmed |
Statistical-Observational Analysis of Skillful Oceanic Predictors of Heavy Daily Precipitation Events in the Sahel |
title_sort |
statistical-observational analysis of skillful oceanic predictors of heavy daily precipitation events in the sahel |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Atmosphere |
issn |
2073-4433 |
publishDate |
2020-06-01 |
description |
In this paper, the sea surface temperature (SST) based statistical seasonal forecast model (S4CAST) is utilized to examine the spatial and temporal prediction skill of Sahel heavy and extreme daily precipitation events. As in previous studies, S4CAST points out the Mediterranean Sea and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the main drivers of Sahel heavy/extreme daily rainfall variability at interannual timescales (period 1982–2015). Overall, the Mediterranean Sea emerges as a seasonal short-term predictor of heavy daily rainfall (1 month in advance), while ENSO returns a longer forecast window (up to 3 months in advance). Regarding the spatial skill, the response of heavy daily rainfall to the Mediterranean SST forcing is significant over a widespread area of the Sahel. Contrastingly, with the ENSO forcing, the response is only significant over the southernmost Sahel area. These differences can be attributed to the distinct physical mechanisms mediating the analyzed SST-rainfall teleconnections. This paper provides fundamental elements to develop an operational statistical-seasonal forecasting system of Sahel heavy and extreme daily precipitation events. |
topic |
West African Monsoon heavy precipitation extreme events teleconnections sea surface temperatures El Niño Southern Oscillation |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/6/584 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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