Assessing the nonlinear response of fine particles to precursor emissions: development and application of an extended response surface modeling technique v1.0

• Main Authors: B. Zhao, S. X. Wang, J. Xing, K. Fu, J. S. Fu, C. Jang, Y. Zhu, X. Y. Dong, Y. Gao, W. J. Wu, J. D. Wang, J. M. Hao
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Copernicus Publications 2015-01-01
• Series: Geoscientific Model Development
• Online Access: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/8/115/2015/gmd-8-115-2015.pdf
• ISSN: 1991-959X; 1991-9603

An innovative extended response surface modeling technique (ERSM v1.0) is developed to characterize the nonlinear response of fine particles (PM_2.5) to large and simultaneous changes of multiple precursor emissions from multiple regions and sectors. The ERSM technique is developed based on the conventional response surface modeling (RSM) technique; it first quantifies the relationship between PM_2.5 concentrations and the emissions of gaseous precursors from each single region using the conventional RSM technique, and then assesses the effects of inter-regional transport of PM_2.5 and its gaseous precursors on PM_2.5 concentrations in the target region. We apply this novel technique with a widely used regional chemical transport model (CTM) over the Yangtze River delta (YRD) region of China, and evaluate the response of PM_2.5 and its inorganic components to the emissions of 36 pollutant–region–sector combinations. The predicted PM_2.5 concentrations agree well with independent CTM simulations; the correlation coefficients are larger than 0.98 and 0.99, and the mean normalized errors (MNEs) are less than 1 and 2% for January and August, respectively. It is also demonstrated that the ERSM technique could reproduce fairly well the response of PM_2.5 to continuous changes of precursor emission levels between zero and 150%. Employing this new technique, we identify the major sources contributing to PM_2.5 and its inorganic components in the YRD region. The nonlinearity in the response of PM_2.5 to emission changes is characterized and the underlying chemical processes are illustrated.