PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MICROREGION OF TANGARÁ DA SERRA, MATO GROSSO STATE, BRAZIL PROBABILIDADE DE PRECIPITAÇÃO PARA A MICROREGIÃO DE TANGARÁ DA SERRA, ESTADO DO MATO GROSSO

• Main Authors: Admar Júnior Coletti, Adalberto Santi, Evandro Marcos kolling, Miriam Hiroko Inoue, Rivanildo Dallacort, Juliano Araújo Martins
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Universidade Federal de Goiás 2010-08-01
• Series: Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical
• Subjects: Distribuição Gama; precipitação esperada; planejamento agrícola
• Online Access: http://www.revistas.ufg.br/index.php/pat/article/view/6365

&lt;p style="margin-bottom: 0cm; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 120%; text-decoration: none;" lang="pt-BR" align="JUSTIFY"&gt;&lt;span style="color: #000000;"&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;span style="font-size: x-small;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size: small;"&gt;Due to the irregular occurrence of rainfall in Brazilian Savannas, associated with a vast range of models that aim to evaluate it, this study was carried out to estimate the monthly amount of rainfall, at different probability levels, in Tangar&amp;aacute; da Serra, Mato Grosso State, Brazil, by using the Gamma function. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="font-size: small;"&gt;Pluviometric&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="font-size: small;"&gt; data from 1970 to 2007 (38 years), provided by the Ag&amp;ecirc;ncia Nacional de &amp;Aacute;guas (ANA), collected in a pluviometric station located at 14&amp;deg;37&amp;rsquo;55&amp;rdquo;S, 57&amp;deg;28&amp;rsquo;05&amp;rdquo;W, and 488 m of altitude, were used. The adjustment analysis between estimated and observed data was carried out in accordance with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov adherence test, at 5% of significance, resulting in no significant differences for monthly periods, including those with several values equal or close to zero, allowing the Gamma distribution use. The highest expected monthly precipitation levels took place from November to March (rainy season), while from June to August were noticed the lowest ones (dry period). The other months can be considered as intermediaries between the dry and rainy seasons.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p style="margin-bottom: 0cm; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 120%; text-decoration: none;" lang="pt-BR" align="JUSTIFY"&gt;&lt;span style="color: #000000;"&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;span style="font-size: small;"&gt;KEY-WORDS: Gamma distribution; expected precipitation; agricultural planning.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;<br>&lt;p style="margin-bottom: 0cm; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 120%; text-decoration: none;" lang="pt-BR" align="JUSTIFY"&gt;&lt;span style="color: #000000;"&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;span style="font-size: small;"&gt;Devido &amp;agrave; irregularidade na ocorr&amp;ecirc;ncia de chuvas na regi&amp;atilde;o dos Cerrados, aliada aos in&amp;uacute;meros modelos que visam a avaliar tal par&amp;acirc;metro, objetivou-se, neste trabalho, estimar a precipita&amp;ccedil;&amp;atilde;o pluviom&amp;eacute;trica mensal, em diferentes n&amp;iacute;veis de probabilidade, na regi&amp;atilde;o de Tangar&amp;aacute; da Serra (MT), utilizando-se a Fun&amp;ccedil;&amp;atilde;o Gama de Probabilidade. Foram utilizados dados pluviom&amp;eacute;tricos de 1970 a 2007 (38 anos), disponibilizados pela Ag&amp;ecirc;ncia Nacional de &amp;Aacute;guas (ANA), coletados nas coordenadas 14&amp;ordm;37&amp;rsquo;55&amp;rdquo; de latitude Sul, 57&amp;ordm;28&amp;rsquo;05&amp;rdquo; de longitude Oeste e 488 m de altitude. Para verifica&amp;ccedil;&amp;atilde;o do ajuste entre os valores estimados e observados, utilizou-se o teste de ader&amp;ecirc;ncia de Kolmogorov-Smirnov, ao n&amp;iacute;vel de 5% de signific&amp;acirc;ncia, o qual n&amp;atilde;o demonstrou discrep&amp;acirc;ncia significativa para per&amp;iacute;odos mensais, inclusive nos meses em que houve v&amp;aacute;rios valores pr&amp;oacute;ximos ou iguais a zero, possibilitando, assim, a utiliza&amp;ccedil;&amp;atilde;o da distribui&amp;ccedil;&amp;atilde;o Gama. As maiores l&amp;acirc;minas de precipita&amp;ccedil;&amp;atilde;o esperadas ocorreram de novembro a mar&amp;ccedil;o (esta&amp;ccedil;&amp;atilde;o chuvosa), enquanto, entre junho e agosto, ocorreram as menores l&amp;acirc;minas de precipita&amp;ccedil;&amp;atilde;o (esta&amp;ccedil;&amp;atilde;o seca). Os demais meses podem ser caracterizados como intermedi&amp;aacute;rios entre a esta&amp;ccedil;&amp;atilde;o seca e a chuvosa.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p style="margin-bottom: 0cm; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 120%; text-decoration: none;" lang="pt-BR" align="JUSTIFY"&gt;&lt;span style="color: #000000;"&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;span style="font-size: small;"&gt;PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Distribui&amp;ccedil;&amp;atilde;o Gama; precipita&amp;ccedil;&amp;atilde;o esperada; planejamento agr&amp;iacute;cola.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;