Pathways for Germany’s Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Towards 2050
Like many other countries, Germany has defined goals to reduce its CO<sub>2</sub>-emissions following the Paris Agreement of the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP). The first successes in decarbonizing the electricity sector were already achieved under the German Energiewende. However,...
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doaj-104956a31c72404a9a154d3c1102c0bf2020-11-25T00:50:12ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732019-08-011215298810.3390/en12152988en12152988Pathways for Germany’s Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Towards 2050Hans-Karl Bartholdsen0Anna Eidens1Konstantin Löffler2Frederik Seehaus3Felix Wejda4Thorsten Burandt5Pao-Yu Oei6Claudia Kemfert7Christian von Hirschhausen8Workgroup for Infrastructure Policy, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, GermanyWorkgroup for Infrastructure Policy, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, GermanyWorkgroup for Infrastructure Policy, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, GermanyWorkgroup for Infrastructure Policy, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, GermanyWorkgroup for Infrastructure Policy, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, GermanyWorkgroup for Infrastructure Policy, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, GermanyWorkgroup for Infrastructure Policy, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, GermanyDeutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin), Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlin, GermanyWorkgroup for Infrastructure Policy, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, GermanyLike many other countries, Germany has defined goals to reduce its CO<sub>2</sub>-emissions following the Paris Agreement of the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP). The first successes in decarbonizing the electricity sector were already achieved under the German Energiewende. However, further steps in this direction, also concerning the heat and transport sectors, have stalled. This paper describes three possible pathways for the transformation of the German energy system until 2050. The scenarios take into account current climate politics on a global, European, and German level and also include different demand projections, technological trends and resource prices. The model includes the sectors power, heat, and transportation and works on a Federal State level. For the analysis, the linear cost-optimizing Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) is used to calculate the cost-efficient paths and technology mixes. We find that a reduction of CO<sub>2</sub> of more than 80% in the less ambitious scenario can be welfare enhancing compared to a scenario without any climate mitigating policies. Even higher decarbonization rates of 95% are feasible and needed to comply with international climate targets, yet related to high effort in transforming the subsector of process heat. The different pathways depicted in this paper render chances and risks of transforming the German energy system under various external influences.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/15/2988decarbonizationenergy system modelingGENeSYS-MODrenewablesenergy policyenergy transformationEnergiewende |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Hans-Karl Bartholdsen Anna Eidens Konstantin Löffler Frederik Seehaus Felix Wejda Thorsten Burandt Pao-Yu Oei Claudia Kemfert Christian von Hirschhausen |
spellingShingle |
Hans-Karl Bartholdsen Anna Eidens Konstantin Löffler Frederik Seehaus Felix Wejda Thorsten Burandt Pao-Yu Oei Claudia Kemfert Christian von Hirschhausen Pathways for Germany’s Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Towards 2050 Energies decarbonization energy system modeling GENeSYS-MOD renewables energy policy energy transformation Energiewende |
author_facet |
Hans-Karl Bartholdsen Anna Eidens Konstantin Löffler Frederik Seehaus Felix Wejda Thorsten Burandt Pao-Yu Oei Claudia Kemfert Christian von Hirschhausen |
author_sort |
Hans-Karl Bartholdsen |
title |
Pathways for Germany’s Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Towards 2050 |
title_short |
Pathways for Germany’s Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Towards 2050 |
title_full |
Pathways for Germany’s Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Towards 2050 |
title_fullStr |
Pathways for Germany’s Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Towards 2050 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Pathways for Germany’s Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Towards 2050 |
title_sort |
pathways for germany’s low-carbon energy transformation towards 2050 |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Energies |
issn |
1996-1073 |
publishDate |
2019-08-01 |
description |
Like many other countries, Germany has defined goals to reduce its CO<sub>2</sub>-emissions following the Paris Agreement of the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP). The first successes in decarbonizing the electricity sector were already achieved under the German Energiewende. However, further steps in this direction, also concerning the heat and transport sectors, have stalled. This paper describes three possible pathways for the transformation of the German energy system until 2050. The scenarios take into account current climate politics on a global, European, and German level and also include different demand projections, technological trends and resource prices. The model includes the sectors power, heat, and transportation and works on a Federal State level. For the analysis, the linear cost-optimizing Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) is used to calculate the cost-efficient paths and technology mixes. We find that a reduction of CO<sub>2</sub> of more than 80% in the less ambitious scenario can be welfare enhancing compared to a scenario without any climate mitigating policies. Even higher decarbonization rates of 95% are feasible and needed to comply with international climate targets, yet related to high effort in transforming the subsector of process heat. The different pathways depicted in this paper render chances and risks of transforming the German energy system under various external influences. |
topic |
decarbonization energy system modeling GENeSYS-MOD renewables energy policy energy transformation Energiewende |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/15/2988 |
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