Re-entry prediction of objects with low-eccentricity orbits based on mean ballistic coefficients
During re-entry objects with low-eccentricity orbits traverse a large portion of the dense atmospheric region almost every orbital revolution. Their perigee decays slowly, but the apogee decays rapidly. Because ballistic coefficients change with altitude, re-entry predictions of objects in low-eccen...
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doaj-11727a21cda6437f91456524feaf02802021-09-06T19:40:15ZengDe GruyterOpen Astronomy2543-63762020-11-0129121021910.1515/astro-2020-0006astro-2020-0006Re-entry prediction of objects with low-eccentricity orbits based on mean ballistic coefficientsWei Zhang0Wen Cui1Xiuhong Wang2Dong Wei3Xing Liu4Xian Satellite Control Center, Xian, ChinaXian Satellite Control Center, Xian, ChinaXian Satellite Control Center, Xian, ChinaPurple Mountain Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, ChinaXian Satellite Control Center, Xian, ChinaDuring re-entry objects with low-eccentricity orbits traverse a large portion of the dense atmospheric region almost every orbital revolution. Their perigee decays slowly, but the apogee decays rapidly. Because ballistic coefficients change with altitude, re-entry predictions of objects in low-eccentricity orbits are more difficult than objects in nearly circular orbits. Problems in orbit determination, such as large residuals and non-convergence, arise for this class of objects, especially in the case of sparse observations. In addition, it might be difficult to select suitable initial ballistic coefficient for re-entry prediction. We present a new re-entry prediction method based on mean ballistic coefficients for objects with low-eccentricity orbits. The mean ballistic coefficient reflects the average effect of atmospheric drag during one orbital revolution, and the coefficient is estimated using a semi-numerical method with a step size of one period. The method is tested using Iridium-52 which uses sparse observations as the data source, and ten other objects with low-eccentricity orbits which use TLEs as the data source. We also discuss the performance of the mean ballistic coefficient when used in the evolution of drag characteristics and orbit propagation. The results show that the mean ballistic coefficient is ideal for re-entry prediction and orbit propagation of objects with low-eccentricity orbits.https://doi.org/10.1515/astro-2020-0006re-entry predictionlow eccentricity orbitballistic coefficientorbit propagation |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Wei Zhang Wen Cui Xiuhong Wang Dong Wei Xing Liu |
spellingShingle |
Wei Zhang Wen Cui Xiuhong Wang Dong Wei Xing Liu Re-entry prediction of objects with low-eccentricity orbits based on mean ballistic coefficients Open Astronomy re-entry prediction low eccentricity orbit ballistic coefficient orbit propagation |
author_facet |
Wei Zhang Wen Cui Xiuhong Wang Dong Wei Xing Liu |
author_sort |
Wei Zhang |
title |
Re-entry prediction of objects with low-eccentricity orbits based on mean ballistic coefficients |
title_short |
Re-entry prediction of objects with low-eccentricity orbits based on mean ballistic coefficients |
title_full |
Re-entry prediction of objects with low-eccentricity orbits based on mean ballistic coefficients |
title_fullStr |
Re-entry prediction of objects with low-eccentricity orbits based on mean ballistic coefficients |
title_full_unstemmed |
Re-entry prediction of objects with low-eccentricity orbits based on mean ballistic coefficients |
title_sort |
re-entry prediction of objects with low-eccentricity orbits based on mean ballistic coefficients |
publisher |
De Gruyter |
series |
Open Astronomy |
issn |
2543-6376 |
publishDate |
2020-11-01 |
description |
During re-entry objects with low-eccentricity orbits traverse a large portion of the dense atmospheric region almost every orbital revolution. Their perigee decays slowly, but the apogee decays rapidly. Because ballistic coefficients change with altitude, re-entry predictions of objects in low-eccentricity orbits are more difficult than objects in nearly circular orbits. Problems in orbit determination, such as large residuals and non-convergence, arise for this class of objects, especially in the case of sparse observations. In addition, it might be difficult to select suitable initial ballistic coefficient for re-entry prediction. We present a new re-entry prediction method based on mean ballistic coefficients for objects with low-eccentricity orbits. The mean ballistic coefficient reflects the average effect of atmospheric drag during one orbital revolution, and the coefficient is estimated using a semi-numerical method with a step size of one period. The method is tested using Iridium-52 which uses sparse observations as the data source, and ten other objects with low-eccentricity orbits which use TLEs as the data source. We also discuss the performance of the mean ballistic coefficient when used in the evolution of drag characteristics and orbit propagation. The results show that the mean ballistic coefficient is ideal for re-entry prediction and orbit propagation of objects with low-eccentricity orbits. |
topic |
re-entry prediction low eccentricity orbit ballistic coefficient orbit propagation |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1515/astro-2020-0006 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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1717768978796904448 |