Uncertainty in Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves of Peninsular Malaysia under Changing Climate Scenarios
This study developed a methodological framework to update the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves under climate change scenarios. A model output statistics (MOS) method is used to downscale the daily rainfall of general circulation models (GCMs), and an artificial neural network (ANN)...
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doaj-118ab236cfd743ad883a189e79d8a9662020-11-24T23:48:13ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412018-11-011012175010.3390/w10121750w10121750Uncertainty in Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves of Peninsular Malaysia under Changing Climate ScenariosMuhammad Noor0Tarmizi Ismail1Eun-Sung Chung2Shamsuddin Shahid3Jang Hyun Sung4Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, MalaysiaDepartment of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, MalaysiaFaculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul 01811, KoreaDepartment of Water and Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, MalaysiaMinistry of Environment, Han River Flood Control Office, Seoul 06501, KoreaThis study developed a methodological framework to update the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves under climate change scenarios. A model output statistics (MOS) method is used to downscale the daily rainfall of general circulation models (GCMs), and an artificial neural network (ANN) is employed for the disaggregation of projected daily rainfall to hourly maximum rainfall, which is then used for the development of IDF curves. Finally, the 1st quartiles, medians, and 3rd quartiles of projected rainfall intensities are estimated for developing IDF curves with uncertainty level. Eight GCM simulations under two radiative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, are used in the proposed framework for the projection of IDF curves with related uncertainties for peninsular Malaysia. The projection of rainfall revealed an increase in the annual average rainfall throughout the present century. The comparison of the projected IDF curves for the period 2006⁻2099 with that obtained using GCM hindcasts for the based period (1971⁻2005) revealed an increase in rainfall intensity for shorter durations and a decrease for longer durations. The uncertainty in rainfall intensity for different return periods for shorter duration is found to be 2 to 6 times more compared to longer duration rainfall, which indicates that a large increase in rainfall intensity for short durations projected by GCMs is highly uncertain for peninsular Malaysia. The IDF curves developed in this study can be used for the planning of climate resilient urban water storm water management infrastructure in Peninsular Malaysia.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/12/1750rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curvesstatistical downscalingclimate changegeneral circulation modelpeninsular Malaysia |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Muhammad Noor Tarmizi Ismail Eun-Sung Chung Shamsuddin Shahid Jang Hyun Sung |
spellingShingle |
Muhammad Noor Tarmizi Ismail Eun-Sung Chung Shamsuddin Shahid Jang Hyun Sung Uncertainty in Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves of Peninsular Malaysia under Changing Climate Scenarios Water rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves statistical downscaling climate change general circulation model peninsular Malaysia |
author_facet |
Muhammad Noor Tarmizi Ismail Eun-Sung Chung Shamsuddin Shahid Jang Hyun Sung |
author_sort |
Muhammad Noor |
title |
Uncertainty in Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves of Peninsular Malaysia under Changing Climate Scenarios |
title_short |
Uncertainty in Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves of Peninsular Malaysia under Changing Climate Scenarios |
title_full |
Uncertainty in Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves of Peninsular Malaysia under Changing Climate Scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty in Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves of Peninsular Malaysia under Changing Climate Scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty in Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves of Peninsular Malaysia under Changing Climate Scenarios |
title_sort |
uncertainty in rainfall intensity duration frequency curves of peninsular malaysia under changing climate scenarios |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Water |
issn |
2073-4441 |
publishDate |
2018-11-01 |
description |
This study developed a methodological framework to update the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves under climate change scenarios. A model output statistics (MOS) method is used to downscale the daily rainfall of general circulation models (GCMs), and an artificial neural network (ANN) is employed for the disaggregation of projected daily rainfall to hourly maximum rainfall, which is then used for the development of IDF curves. Finally, the 1st quartiles, medians, and 3rd quartiles of projected rainfall intensities are estimated for developing IDF curves with uncertainty level. Eight GCM simulations under two radiative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, are used in the proposed framework for the projection of IDF curves with related uncertainties for peninsular Malaysia. The projection of rainfall revealed an increase in the annual average rainfall throughout the present century. The comparison of the projected IDF curves for the period 2006⁻2099 with that obtained using GCM hindcasts for the based period (1971⁻2005) revealed an increase in rainfall intensity for shorter durations and a decrease for longer durations. The uncertainty in rainfall intensity for different return periods for shorter duration is found to be 2 to 6 times more compared to longer duration rainfall, which indicates that a large increase in rainfall intensity for short durations projected by GCMs is highly uncertain for peninsular Malaysia. The IDF curves developed in this study can be used for the planning of climate resilient urban water storm water management infrastructure in Peninsular Malaysia. |
topic |
rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves statistical downscaling climate change general circulation model peninsular Malaysia |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/10/12/1750 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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