How long will an Arctic mountain glacier survive? A case study of Austre Lovénbreen, Svalbard
To study Arctic valley glacier responses to global climate change, the Elmer/Ice ice-flow model was used to investigate long-term changes in Austre Lovénbreen, a typical polythermal glacier in Svalbard. Evolution and features, including volume, area, ice thickness, runoff and time and mode of glacie...
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doaj-12939b1753e841f6843fb406bcf39ffb2020-11-25T00:41:49Zeng Norwegian Polar InstitutePolar Research1751-83692019-12-0138011410.33265/polar.v38.35193519How long will an Arctic mountain glacier survive? A case study of Austre Lovénbreen, SvalbardZemin Wang0Guobiao Lin1Songtao Ai2Chinese Antarctic Center of Surveying and Mapping, Wuhan University, Wuhan, ChinaChinese Antarctic Center of Surveying and Mapping, Wuhan University, Wuhan, ChinaChinese Antarctic Center of Surveying and Mapping, Wuhan University, Wuhan, ChinaTo study Arctic valley glacier responses to global climate change, the Elmer/Ice ice-flow model was used to investigate long-term changes in Austre Lovénbreen, a typical polythermal glacier in Svalbard. Evolution and features, including volume, area, ice thickness, runoff and time and mode of glacier disappearance, were projected. Firstly, steady-state simulations were performed to determine the best parameters for the ice-flow model, which were then used to simulate glacial dynamics. Based on the 21st-century Arctic warming trend in the fifth assessment report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the evolution of the glacier was simulated under three hypothetical climatic scenarios: pessimistic, high-probability and optimistic. The results predicted that the glacier will retreat until disappearance under all three scenarios, and its disappearance time will likely be approximately 111 years (by 2120). Under all scenarios, glacier volume and area reductions will be slow at first, then fast and finally slow again at the end. In particular, glacial runoff will increase markedly until 2070 in the high-probability scenario, and the peak runoff will be double the current value.https://polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/3519/9950climate scenarioselmer/icebasal slidingpeak runoffglacier disappearance |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Zemin Wang Guobiao Lin Songtao Ai |
spellingShingle |
Zemin Wang Guobiao Lin Songtao Ai How long will an Arctic mountain glacier survive? A case study of Austre Lovénbreen, Svalbard Polar Research climate scenarios elmer/ice basal sliding peak runoff glacier disappearance |
author_facet |
Zemin Wang Guobiao Lin Songtao Ai |
author_sort |
Zemin Wang |
title |
How long will an Arctic mountain glacier survive? A case study of Austre Lovénbreen, Svalbard |
title_short |
How long will an Arctic mountain glacier survive? A case study of Austre Lovénbreen, Svalbard |
title_full |
How long will an Arctic mountain glacier survive? A case study of Austre Lovénbreen, Svalbard |
title_fullStr |
How long will an Arctic mountain glacier survive? A case study of Austre Lovénbreen, Svalbard |
title_full_unstemmed |
How long will an Arctic mountain glacier survive? A case study of Austre Lovénbreen, Svalbard |
title_sort |
how long will an arctic mountain glacier survive? a case study of austre lovénbreen, svalbard |
publisher |
Norwegian Polar Institute |
series |
Polar Research |
issn |
1751-8369 |
publishDate |
2019-12-01 |
description |
To study Arctic valley glacier responses to global climate change, the Elmer/Ice ice-flow model was used to investigate long-term changes in Austre Lovénbreen, a typical polythermal glacier in Svalbard. Evolution and features, including volume, area, ice thickness, runoff and time and mode of glacier disappearance, were projected. Firstly, steady-state simulations were performed to determine the best parameters for the ice-flow model, which were then used to simulate glacial dynamics. Based on the 21st-century Arctic warming trend in the fifth assessment report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the evolution of the glacier was simulated under three hypothetical climatic scenarios: pessimistic, high-probability and optimistic. The results predicted that the glacier will retreat until disappearance under all three scenarios, and its disappearance time will likely be approximately 111 years (by 2120). Under all scenarios, glacier volume and area reductions will be slow at first, then fast and finally slow again at the end. In particular, glacial runoff will increase markedly until 2070 in the high-probability scenario, and the peak runoff will be double the current value. |
topic |
climate scenarios elmer/ice basal sliding peak runoff glacier disappearance |
url |
https://polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/3519/9950 |
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