Future Climate Impact on the Desertification in the Dry Land Asia Using AVHRR GIMMS NDVI3g Data

Future Climate Impact on the Desertification in the Dry Land Asia Using AVHRR GIMMS NDVI3g Data

Dry Land Asia is the largest arid and semi-arid region in the northern hemisphere that suffers from land desertification. Over the period 1982–2011, there were both overall improvement and regional degeneration in the vegetation NDVI. We analyze future climate changes in these area using two ensembl...

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Main Authors: Lijuan Miao, Peilong Ye, Bin He, Lizi Chen, Xuefeng Cui
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2015-04-01
Series:Remote Sensing
Subjects:
CMIP5
climate change
desertification
simulation
dry land Asia
Online Access:http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/7/4/3863
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spelling doaj-152e4da86bd3454a8827c854358d142a2020-11-25T00:22:31ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922015-04-01743863387710.3390/rs70403863rs70403863Future Climate Impact on the Desertification in the Dry Land Asia Using AVHRR GIMMS NDVI3g DataLijuan Miao0Peilong Ye1Bin He2Lizi Chen3Xuefeng Cui4State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Beijing 100875, ChinaCollege of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, 222 TianShui Street, Lanzhou 730000, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Beijing 100875, ChinaDepartment of Cultural Relics and Museology, Fudan University, 220 Handan Road, Shanghai 200433, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Beijing 100875, ChinaDry Land Asia is the largest arid and semi-arid region in the northern hemisphere that suffers from land desertification. Over the period 1982–2011, there were both overall improvement and regional degeneration in the vegetation NDVI. We analyze future climate changes in these area using two ensemble-average methods from CMIP5 data. Bayesian Model Averaging shows a better capability to represent the future climate and less uncertainty represented by the 22-model ensemble than does the Simple Model Average. From 2006 to 2100, the average growing season temperature value will increase by 2.9 °C, from 14.4 °C to 17.3 °C under three climate scenarios (RCP 26, RCP 45 and RCP 85). We then conduct multiple regression analysis between climate changes compiled from the Climate Research Unit database and vegetation greenness from the GIMMS NDVI3g dataset. There is a general acceleration in the desertification trend under the RCP 85 scenario in middle and northern part of Middle Asia, northwestern China except Xinjiang and the Mongolian Plateau (except the middle part). The RCP 85 scenario shows a more severe desertification trend than does RCP 26. Desertification in dry land Asia, particularly in the regions highlighted in this study, calls for further investigation into climate change impacts and adaptations.http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/7/4/3863CMIP5climate changedesertificationsimulationdry land Asia
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Lijuan Miao
Peilong Ye
Bin He
Lizi Chen
Xuefeng Cui
spellingShingle Lijuan Miao
Peilong Ye
Bin He
Lizi Chen
Xuefeng Cui
Future Climate Impact on the Desertification in the Dry Land Asia Using AVHRR GIMMS NDVI3g Data
Remote Sensing
CMIP5
climate change
desertification
simulation
dry land Asia
author_facet Lijuan Miao
Peilong Ye
Bin He
Lizi Chen
Xuefeng Cui
author_sort Lijuan Miao
title Future Climate Impact on the Desertification in the Dry Land Asia Using AVHRR GIMMS NDVI3g Data
title_short Future Climate Impact on the Desertification in the Dry Land Asia Using AVHRR GIMMS NDVI3g Data
title_full Future Climate Impact on the Desertification in the Dry Land Asia Using AVHRR GIMMS NDVI3g Data
title_fullStr Future Climate Impact on the Desertification in the Dry Land Asia Using AVHRR GIMMS NDVI3g Data
title_full_unstemmed Future Climate Impact on the Desertification in the Dry Land Asia Using AVHRR GIMMS NDVI3g Data
title_sort future climate impact on the desertification in the dry land asia using avhrr gimms ndvi3g data
publisher MDPI AG
series Remote Sensing
issn 2072-4292
publishDate 2015-04-01
description Dry Land Asia is the largest arid and semi-arid region in the northern hemisphere that suffers from land desertification. Over the period 1982–2011, there were both overall improvement and regional degeneration in the vegetation NDVI. We analyze future climate changes in these area using two ensemble-average methods from CMIP5 data. Bayesian Model Averaging shows a better capability to represent the future climate and less uncertainty represented by the 22-model ensemble than does the Simple Model Average. From 2006 to 2100, the average growing season temperature value will increase by 2.9 °C, from 14.4 °C to 17.3 °C under three climate scenarios (RCP 26, RCP 45 and RCP 85). We then conduct multiple regression analysis between climate changes compiled from the Climate Research Unit database and vegetation greenness from the GIMMS NDVI3g dataset. There is a general acceleration in the desertification trend under the RCP 85 scenario in middle and northern part of Middle Asia, northwestern China except Xinjiang and the Mongolian Plateau (except the middle part). The RCP 85 scenario shows a more severe desertification trend than does RCP 26. Desertification in dry land Asia, particularly in the regions highlighted in this study, calls for further investigation into climate change impacts and adaptations.
topic CMIP5
climate change
desertification
simulation
dry land Asia
url http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/7/4/3863
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