High-Resolution Climate Projections for a Densely Populated Mediterranean Region
The present study projected future climate change for the densely populated Central North region of Egypt (CNE) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and two futures (near future: 2020–2059, and far future: 2060–2099), estimated by a credible subset of five global climate models (GCMs...
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doaj-17ff24df5efc44ceaf04f13fcd893f352020-11-25T02:38:39ZengMDPI AGSustainability2071-10502020-05-01123684368410.3390/su12093684High-Resolution Climate Projections for a Densely Populated Mediterranean RegionMohamed Salem Nashwan0Shamsuddin Shahid1Eun-Sung Chung2Department of Construction and Building Engineering, College of Engineering and Technology, Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT), 2033 Elhorria, Heliopolis, Cairo, 2033, EgyptSchool of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Skudai 81310, Johor, MalaysiaFaculty of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, 232 Gongneung-ro, Nowon-gu, Seoul 01811, KoreaThe present study projected future climate change for the densely populated Central North region of Egypt (CNE) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and two futures (near future: 2020–2059, and far future: 2060–2099), estimated by a credible subset of five global climate models (GCMs). Different bias correction models have been applied to correct the bias in the five interpolated GCMs’ outputs onto a high-resolution horizontal grid. The 0.05° CNE datasets of maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmx, and Tmn, respectively) and the 0.1° African Rainfall Climatology (ARC2) datasets represented the historical climate. The evaluation of bias correction methodologies revealed the better performance of linear and variance scaling for correcting the rainfall and temperature GCMs’ outputs, respectively. They were used to transfer the correction factor to the projections. The five statistically bias-corrected climate projections presented the uncertainty range in the future change in the climate of CNE. The rainfall is expected to increase in the near future but drastically decrease in the far future. The Tmx and Tmn are projected to increase in both future periods reaching nearly a maximum of 5.50 and 8.50 °C for Tmx and Tmn, respectively. These findings highlighted the severe consequence of climate change on the socio-economic activities in the CNE aiming for better sustainable development.https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/9/3684EgyptNile DeltaARCgeneral circulation modelCMIP5downscaling |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Mohamed Salem Nashwan Shamsuddin Shahid Eun-Sung Chung |
spellingShingle |
Mohamed Salem Nashwan Shamsuddin Shahid Eun-Sung Chung High-Resolution Climate Projections for a Densely Populated Mediterranean Region Sustainability Egypt Nile Delta ARC general circulation model CMIP5 downscaling |
author_facet |
Mohamed Salem Nashwan Shamsuddin Shahid Eun-Sung Chung |
author_sort |
Mohamed Salem Nashwan |
title |
High-Resolution Climate Projections for a Densely Populated Mediterranean Region |
title_short |
High-Resolution Climate Projections for a Densely Populated Mediterranean Region |
title_full |
High-Resolution Climate Projections for a Densely Populated Mediterranean Region |
title_fullStr |
High-Resolution Climate Projections for a Densely Populated Mediterranean Region |
title_full_unstemmed |
High-Resolution Climate Projections for a Densely Populated Mediterranean Region |
title_sort |
high-resolution climate projections for a densely populated mediterranean region |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Sustainability |
issn |
2071-1050 |
publishDate |
2020-05-01 |
description |
The present study projected future climate change for the densely populated Central North region of Egypt (CNE) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and two futures (near future: 2020–2059, and far future: 2060–2099), estimated by a credible subset of five global climate models (GCMs). Different bias correction models have been applied to correct the bias in the five interpolated GCMs’ outputs onto a high-resolution horizontal grid. The 0.05° CNE datasets of maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmx, and Tmn, respectively) and the 0.1° African Rainfall Climatology (ARC2) datasets represented the historical climate. The evaluation of bias correction methodologies revealed the better performance of linear and variance scaling for correcting the rainfall and temperature GCMs’ outputs, respectively. They were used to transfer the correction factor to the projections. The five statistically bias-corrected climate projections presented the uncertainty range in the future change in the climate of CNE. The rainfall is expected to increase in the near future but drastically decrease in the far future. The Tmx and Tmn are projected to increase in both future periods reaching nearly a maximum of 5.50 and 8.50 °C for Tmx and Tmn, respectively. These findings highlighted the severe consequence of climate change on the socio-economic activities in the CNE aiming for better sustainable development. |
topic |
Egypt Nile Delta ARC general circulation model CMIP5 downscaling |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/9/3684 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT mohamedsalemnashwan highresolutionclimateprojectionsforadenselypopulatedmediterraneanregion AT shamsuddinshahid highresolutionclimateprojectionsforadenselypopulatedmediterraneanregion AT eunsungchung highresolutionclimateprojectionsforadenselypopulatedmediterraneanregion |
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