A Detailed Forecast of the Technologies Based on Lifecycle Analysis of GMAW and CMT Welding Processes
In this study, GMAW and CMT welding technologies were evaluated in terms of their technological lifecycles based on their patent datasets together with the S-curve concept, and the joints were evaluated in terms of their welding characteristics. To predict the future trends for both technologies, di...
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doaj-18346e026d9f448e83ab2d196cad38552021-03-29T23:01:28ZengMDPI AGSustainability2071-10502021-03-01133766376610.3390/su13073766A Detailed Forecast of the Technologies Based on Lifecycle Analysis of GMAW and CMT Welding ProcessesAndré Souza Oliveira0Raphael Oliveira dos Santos1Bruno Caetano dos Santos Silva2Lilian Lefol Nani Guarieiro3Matthias Angerhausen4Uwe Reisgen5Renelson Ribeiro Sampaio6Bruna Aparecida Souza Machado7Enrique López Droguett8Paulo Henrique Ferreira da Silva9Rodrigo Santiago Coelho10SENAI CIMATEC, Instituto SENAI de Inovação em Conformação e União de Materiais, Av. Orlando Gomes, 1845, Piatã, Salvador, BA 41650-010, BrazilSENAI CIMATEC, Programa de Pós-Graduação MPDS/GETEC/MCTI—Centro Universitário SENAI CIMATEC, Av. Orlando Gomes, 1845, Piatã, Salvador, BA 41650-010, BrazilSENAI CIMATEC, Instituto SENAI de Inovação em Conformação e União de Materiais, Av. Orlando Gomes, 1845, Piatã, Salvador, BA 41650-010, BrazilSENAI CIMATEC, Instituto SENAI de Inovação em Conformação e União de Materiais, Av. Orlando Gomes, 1845, Piatã, Salvador, BA 41650-010, BrazilForschungs- und Entwicklungsgesellschaft Fügetechnik GmbH, Driescher Gässchen 5, 52062 Aachen, NRW, GermanyInstitut für Schweißtechnik und Fügetechnik, RWTH Aachen University, Pontstraße 49, 52062 Aachen, NRW, GermanySENAI CIMATEC, Programa de Pós-Graduação MPDS/GETEC/MCTI—Centro Universitário SENAI CIMATEC, Av. Orlando Gomes, 1845, Piatã, Salvador, BA 41650-010, BrazilSENAI CIMATEC, Programa de Pós-Graduação MPDS/GETEC/MCTI—Centro Universitário SENAI CIMATEC, Av. Orlando Gomes, 1845, Piatã, Salvador, BA 41650-010, BrazilDepartamento de Ingeniería Mecánica, Universidad de Chile, Exibir Comentário, Santiago 837-0456, ChileUFBA, Departamento de Estatística, Av. Adhemar de Barros, Ondina, Salvador, BA 40170-110, BrazilSENAI CIMATEC, Instituto SENAI de Inovação em Conformação e União de Materiais, Av. Orlando Gomes, 1845, Piatã, Salvador, BA 41650-010, BrazilIn this study, GMAW and CMT welding technologies were evaluated in terms of their technological lifecycles based on their patent datasets together with the S-curve concept, and the joints were evaluated in terms of their welding characteristics. To predict the future trends for both technologies, different models based on the time-series and growth-curve methods were tested. From a process point of view, the results showed better performance and stability for the CMT process based on the heat input to the base material and the frequency of the short circuits. The temperature distribution in the sample revealed that the GMAW process delivers higher values and, consequently, greater heat transfer. Regarding the technological lifecycle, the analyses revealed that the CMT welding process, despite being recent, is already in its mature phase. Moreover, the GMAW welding process is positioned in the growth phase on the S-curve, indicating a possibility of advancement. The main findings indicated that through mathematical modelling, it is possible to predict, in a precise way, the inflection points and the maturity phases of each technology and chart their trends with expert opinions. The new perspectives for analysing maturity levels and welding characteristics presented herein will be essential for a broaden decision-making market process.https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/7/3766S-curvetechnology lifecycleGMAWCMT |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
André Souza Oliveira Raphael Oliveira dos Santos Bruno Caetano dos Santos Silva Lilian Lefol Nani Guarieiro Matthias Angerhausen Uwe Reisgen Renelson Ribeiro Sampaio Bruna Aparecida Souza Machado Enrique López Droguett Paulo Henrique Ferreira da Silva Rodrigo Santiago Coelho |
spellingShingle |
André Souza Oliveira Raphael Oliveira dos Santos Bruno Caetano dos Santos Silva Lilian Lefol Nani Guarieiro Matthias Angerhausen Uwe Reisgen Renelson Ribeiro Sampaio Bruna Aparecida Souza Machado Enrique López Droguett Paulo Henrique Ferreira da Silva Rodrigo Santiago Coelho A Detailed Forecast of the Technologies Based on Lifecycle Analysis of GMAW and CMT Welding Processes Sustainability S-curve technology lifecycle GMAW CMT |
author_facet |
André Souza Oliveira Raphael Oliveira dos Santos Bruno Caetano dos Santos Silva Lilian Lefol Nani Guarieiro Matthias Angerhausen Uwe Reisgen Renelson Ribeiro Sampaio Bruna Aparecida Souza Machado Enrique López Droguett Paulo Henrique Ferreira da Silva Rodrigo Santiago Coelho |
author_sort |
André Souza Oliveira |
title |
A Detailed Forecast of the Technologies Based on Lifecycle Analysis of GMAW and CMT Welding Processes |
title_short |
A Detailed Forecast of the Technologies Based on Lifecycle Analysis of GMAW and CMT Welding Processes |
title_full |
A Detailed Forecast of the Technologies Based on Lifecycle Analysis of GMAW and CMT Welding Processes |
title_fullStr |
A Detailed Forecast of the Technologies Based on Lifecycle Analysis of GMAW and CMT Welding Processes |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Detailed Forecast of the Technologies Based on Lifecycle Analysis of GMAW and CMT Welding Processes |
title_sort |
detailed forecast of the technologies based on lifecycle analysis of gmaw and cmt welding processes |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Sustainability |
issn |
2071-1050 |
publishDate |
2021-03-01 |
description |
In this study, GMAW and CMT welding technologies were evaluated in terms of their technological lifecycles based on their patent datasets together with the S-curve concept, and the joints were evaluated in terms of their welding characteristics. To predict the future trends for both technologies, different models based on the time-series and growth-curve methods were tested. From a process point of view, the results showed better performance and stability for the CMT process based on the heat input to the base material and the frequency of the short circuits. The temperature distribution in the sample revealed that the GMAW process delivers higher values and, consequently, greater heat transfer. Regarding the technological lifecycle, the analyses revealed that the CMT welding process, despite being recent, is already in its mature phase. Moreover, the GMAW welding process is positioned in the growth phase on the S-curve, indicating a possibility of advancement. The main findings indicated that through mathematical modelling, it is possible to predict, in a precise way, the inflection points and the maturity phases of each technology and chart their trends with expert opinions. The new perspectives for analysing maturity levels and welding characteristics presented herein will be essential for a broaden decision-making market process. |
topic |
S-curve technology lifecycle GMAW CMT |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/7/3766 |
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