A 30 m scale modeling of extreme gusts during Hurricane Irma (2017) landfall on very small mountainous islands in the Lesser Antilles
<p>In view of the high vulnerability of the small islands of the Lesser Antilles to cyclonic hazards, realistic very fine scale numerical simulation of hurricane-induced winds is essential to prevent and manage risks. The present innovative modeling aims at combining the most realistically sim...
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doaj-18505cd04ef24a69b8546e0f32ad6b682021-01-15T10:21:23ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812021-01-012112914510.5194/nhess-21-129-2021A 30 m scale modeling of extreme gusts during Hurricane Irma (2017) landfall on very small mountainous islands in the Lesser AntillesR. Cécé0D. Bernard1Y. Krien2F. Leone3T. Candela4M. Péroche5E. Biabiany6G. Arnaud7A. Belmadani8P. Palany9N. Zahibo10LARGE, University of the French West Indies, 97157 Pointe-à-Pitre, Guadeloupe, FranceLARGE, University of the French West Indies, 97157 Pointe-à-Pitre, Guadeloupe, FranceLIENSs UMR 7266 CNRS, University of La Rochelle, 17000 La Rochelle, FranceUMR GRED, University Paul-Valéry-Montpellier, CEDEX 5, 3-34199 Montpellier, FranceUMR GRED, University Paul-Valéry-Montpellier, CEDEX 5, 3-34199 Montpellier, FranceUMR GRED, University Paul-Valéry-Montpellier, CEDEX 5, 3-34199 Montpellier, FranceLARGE, University of the French West Indies, 97157 Pointe-à-Pitre, Guadeloupe, FranceMetOcean Solutions, 3225 Raglan, New ZealandDIRAG, Météo-France, Fort-de-France CEDEX 97262, Martinique, FranceDIRAG, Météo-France, Fort-de-France CEDEX 97262, Martinique, FranceLARGE, University of the French West Indies, 97157 Pointe-à-Pitre, Guadeloupe, France<p>In view of the high vulnerability of the small islands of the Lesser Antilles to cyclonic hazards, realistic very fine scale numerical simulation of hurricane-induced winds is essential to prevent and manage risks. The present innovative modeling aims at combining the most realistically simulated strongest gusts driven by tornado-scale vortices within the eyewall and the most realistic complex terrain effects. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the nonlinear backscatter and anisotropy (NBA) large eddy simulation (LES) configuration was used to reconstruct the devastating landfall of category 5 Hurricane Irma (2017) on Saint Barthélemy and Saint Martin. The results pointed out that the 30 m scale seems necessary to simulate structures of multiple subtornadic-scale vortices leading to extreme peak gusts of 132 <span class="inline-formula">m s<sup>−1</sup></span> over the sea. Based on the literature, such extreme gust values have already been observed and are expected for category 5 hurricanes like Irma. Risk areas associated with terrain gust speed-up factors greater than 1 have been identified for the two islands. The comparison between the simulated gusts and the remote sensing building damage highlighted the major role of structure strength linked with the socio-economic development of the territory. The present modeling method could be easily extended to other small mountainous islands to improve the understanding of observed past damage and to develop safer urban management and appropriate building standards.</p>https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/129/2021/nhess-21-129-2021.pdf |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
R. Cécé D. Bernard Y. Krien F. Leone T. Candela M. Péroche E. Biabiany G. Arnaud A. Belmadani P. Palany N. Zahibo |
spellingShingle |
R. Cécé D. Bernard Y. Krien F. Leone T. Candela M. Péroche E. Biabiany G. Arnaud A. Belmadani P. Palany N. Zahibo A 30 m scale modeling of extreme gusts during Hurricane Irma (2017) landfall on very small mountainous islands in the Lesser Antilles Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
author_facet |
R. Cécé D. Bernard Y. Krien F. Leone T. Candela M. Péroche E. Biabiany G. Arnaud A. Belmadani P. Palany N. Zahibo |
author_sort |
R. Cécé |
title |
A 30 m scale modeling of extreme gusts during Hurricane Irma (2017) landfall on very small mountainous islands in the Lesser Antilles |
title_short |
A 30 m scale modeling of extreme gusts during Hurricane Irma (2017) landfall on very small mountainous islands in the Lesser Antilles |
title_full |
A 30 m scale modeling of extreme gusts during Hurricane Irma (2017) landfall on very small mountainous islands in the Lesser Antilles |
title_fullStr |
A 30 m scale modeling of extreme gusts during Hurricane Irma (2017) landfall on very small mountainous islands in the Lesser Antilles |
title_full_unstemmed |
A 30 m scale modeling of extreme gusts during Hurricane Irma (2017) landfall on very small mountainous islands in the Lesser Antilles |
title_sort |
30 m scale modeling of extreme gusts during hurricane irma (2017) landfall on very small mountainous islands in the lesser antilles |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
series |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
issn |
1561-8633 1684-9981 |
publishDate |
2021-01-01 |
description |
<p>In view of the high vulnerability of the small islands of the Lesser Antilles to cyclonic hazards, realistic very fine scale numerical simulation of hurricane-induced winds is essential to prevent and manage risks. The present innovative modeling aims at combining the most realistically simulated strongest gusts driven by tornado-scale vortices within the eyewall and the most realistic complex terrain effects. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the nonlinear backscatter and anisotropy (NBA) large eddy simulation (LES) configuration was used to reconstruct the devastating landfall of category 5 Hurricane Irma (2017) on Saint Barthélemy and Saint Martin. The results pointed out that the 30 m scale seems necessary to simulate structures of multiple subtornadic-scale vortices leading to extreme peak gusts of 132 <span class="inline-formula">m s<sup>−1</sup></span> over the sea. Based on the literature, such extreme gust values have already been observed and are expected for category 5 hurricanes like Irma. Risk areas associated with terrain gust speed-up factors greater than 1 have been identified for the two islands. The comparison between the simulated gusts and the remote sensing building damage highlighted the major role of structure strength linked with the
socio-economic development of the territory. The present modeling method could be easily extended to other small mountainous islands to improve the
understanding of observed past damage and to develop safer urban management
and appropriate building standards.</p> |
url |
https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/129/2021/nhess-21-129-2021.pdf |
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