Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases
Seasonal variations in COVID-19 incidence have been suggested as a potentially important factor in the future trajectory of the pandemic. Using global line-list data on COVID-19 cases reported until 17th of March 2020 and global gridded weather data, we assessed the effects of air temperature and re...
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Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00367/full |
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doaj-18c4797c1253444e8a62413535b642982020-11-25T03:52:32ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652020-07-01810.3389/fpubh.2020.00367561659Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 CasesAnne Meyer0Rohan Sadler1Céline Faverjon2Angus Robert Cameron3Melanie Bannister-Tyrrell4Ausvet Europe, Lyon, FranceAusvet, Fremantle, WA, AustraliaAusvet Europe, Lyon, FranceAusvet Europe, Lyon, FranceAusvet, Fremantle, WA, AustraliaSeasonal variations in COVID-19 incidence have been suggested as a potentially important factor in the future trajectory of the pandemic. Using global line-list data on COVID-19 cases reported until 17th of March 2020 and global gridded weather data, we assessed the effects of air temperature and relative humidity on the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 local cases at the subnational level (first-level administrative divisions). After adjusting for surveillance capacity and time since first imported case, average temperature had a statistically significant, negative association with COVID-19 incidence for temperatures of −15°C and above. However, temperature only explained a relatively modest amount of the total variation in COVID-19 cases. The effect of relative humidity was not statistically significant. These results suggest that warmer weather may modestly reduce the rate of spread of COVID-19, but anticipation of a substantial decline in transmission due to temperature alone with onset of summer in the northern hemisphere, or in tropical regions, is not warranted by these findings.https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00367/fullCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2coronaviruspandemictemperaturehumidity |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Anne Meyer Rohan Sadler Céline Faverjon Angus Robert Cameron Melanie Bannister-Tyrrell |
spellingShingle |
Anne Meyer Rohan Sadler Céline Faverjon Angus Robert Cameron Melanie Bannister-Tyrrell Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases Frontiers in Public Health COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic temperature humidity |
author_facet |
Anne Meyer Rohan Sadler Céline Faverjon Angus Robert Cameron Melanie Bannister-Tyrrell |
author_sort |
Anne Meyer |
title |
Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases |
title_short |
Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases |
title_full |
Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases |
title_fullStr |
Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases |
title_sort |
evidence that higher temperatures are associated with a marginally lower incidence of covid-19 cases |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
series |
Frontiers in Public Health |
issn |
2296-2565 |
publishDate |
2020-07-01 |
description |
Seasonal variations in COVID-19 incidence have been suggested as a potentially important factor in the future trajectory of the pandemic. Using global line-list data on COVID-19 cases reported until 17th of March 2020 and global gridded weather data, we assessed the effects of air temperature and relative humidity on the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 local cases at the subnational level (first-level administrative divisions). After adjusting for surveillance capacity and time since first imported case, average temperature had a statistically significant, negative association with COVID-19 incidence for temperatures of −15°C and above. However, temperature only explained a relatively modest amount of the total variation in COVID-19 cases. The effect of relative humidity was not statistically significant. These results suggest that warmer weather may modestly reduce the rate of spread of COVID-19, but anticipation of a substantial decline in transmission due to temperature alone with onset of summer in the northern hemisphere, or in tropical regions, is not warranted by these findings. |
topic |
COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic temperature humidity |
url |
https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00367/full |
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