Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases

• Main Authors: Anne Meyer, Rohan Sadler, Céline Faverjon, Angus Robert Cameron, Melanie Bannister-Tyrrell
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2020-07-01
• Series: Frontiers in Public Health
• Subjects: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus; pandemic; temperature; humidity
• Online Access: https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00367/full

Seasonal variations in COVID-19 incidence have been suggested as a potentially important factor in the future trajectory of the pandemic. Using global line-list data on COVID-19 cases reported until 17th of March 2020 and global gridded weather data, we assessed the effects of air temperature and relative humidity on the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 local cases at the subnational level (first-level administrative divisions). After adjusting for surveillance capacity and time since first imported case, average temperature had a statistically significant, negative association with COVID-19 incidence for temperatures of −15°C and above. However, temperature only explained a relatively modest amount of the total variation in COVID-19 cases. The effect of relative humidity was not statistically significant. These results suggest that warmer weather may modestly reduce the rate of spread of COVID-19, but anticipation of a substantial decline in transmission due to temperature alone with onset of summer in the northern hemisphere, or in tropical regions, is not warranted by these findings.