Climate Change and Vector-borne Diseases: An Economic Impact Analysis of Malaria in Africa

• Main Authors: Ximing Wu, Bruce A. McCarl, Aklesso Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Mark Musumba
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2011-03-01
• Series: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
• Subjects: malaria and climate change; semi-parametric modeling; cost of malaria treatment
• Online Access: http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/8/3/913/

A semi-parametric econometric model is used to study the relationship between malaria cases and climatic factors in 25 African countries. Results show that a marginal change in temperature and precipitation levels would lead to a significant change in the number of malaria cases for most countries by the end of the century. Consistent with the existing biophysical malaria model results, the projected effects of climate change are mixed. Our model projects that some countries will see an increase in malaria cases but others will see a decrease. We estimate projected malaria inpatient and outpatient treatment costs as a proportion of annual 2000 health expenditures per 1,000 people. We found that even under minimal climate change scenario, some countries may see their inpatient treatment cost of malaria increase more than 20%.