Characterizing the relationship between temperature and mortality in tropical and subtropical cities: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis in Hue, Viet Nam, 2009–2013
Background: The relationship between temperature and mortality has been found to be U-, V-, or J-shaped in developed temperate countries; however, in developing tropical/subtropical cities, it remains unclear. Objectives: Our goal was to investigate the relationship between temperature and mortality...
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doaj-1a055989e7e349bcbef4c2c828f0a1f12020-11-25T00:00:38ZengTaylor & Francis GroupGlobal Health Action1654-98802016-01-019011110.3402/gha.v9.2873828738Characterizing the relationship between temperature and mortality in tropical and subtropical cities: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis in Hue, Viet Nam, 2009–2013Tran Ngoc Dang0Xerxes T. Seposo1Nguyen Huu Chau Duc2Tran Binh Thang3Do Dang An4Lai Thi Minh Hang5Tran Thanh Long6Bui Thi Hong Loan7Yasushi Honda8 Department of Health Care Policy and Management, Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan Department of Health Care Policy and Management, Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan Department of Global Health Promotion, Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan Institute for Community Heath Research, Hue University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Hue City, Viet Nam Department of International Cooperation, Ministry of Health, Hanoi, Viet Nam Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Kagoshima, Kagoshima, Japan Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Kagoshima, Kagoshima, Japan Department of Global Public Health, Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, JapanBackground: The relationship between temperature and mortality has been found to be U-, V-, or J-shaped in developed temperate countries; however, in developing tropical/subtropical cities, it remains unclear. Objectives: Our goal was to investigate the relationship between temperature and mortality in Hue, a subtropical city in Viet Nam. Design: We collected daily mortality data from the Vietnamese A6 mortality reporting system for 6,214 deceased persons between 2009 and 2013. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the temperature effects on all-cause and cause-specific mortality by assuming negative binomial distribution for count data. We developed an objective-oriented model selection with four steps following the Akaike information criterion (AIC) rule (i.e. a smaller AIC value indicates a better model). Results: High temperature-related mortality was more strongly associated with short lags, whereas low temperature-related mortality was more strongly associated with long lags. The low temperatures increased risk in all-category mortality compared to high temperatures. We observed elevated temperature-mortality risk in vulnerable groups: elderly people (high temperature effect, relative risk [RR]=1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.11–1.83; low temperature effect, RR=2.0, 95% CI=1.13–3.52), females (low temperature effect, RR=2.19, 95% CI=1.14–4.21), people with respiratory disease (high temperature effect, RR=2.45, 95% CI=0.91–6.63), and those with cardiovascular disease (high temperature effect, RR=1.6, 95% CI=1.15–2.22; low temperature effect, RR=1.99, 95% CI=0.92–4.28). Conclusions: In Hue, the temperature significantly increased the risk of mortality, especially in vulnerable groups (i.e. elderly, female, people with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases). These findings may provide a foundation for developing adequate policies to address the effects of temperature on health in Hue City.http://www.globalhealthaction.net/index.php/gha/article/view/28738/pdf_127high temperature effectslow temperature effectshot effectscold effectstime-series regression |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Tran Ngoc Dang Xerxes T. Seposo Nguyen Huu Chau Duc Tran Binh Thang Do Dang An Lai Thi Minh Hang Tran Thanh Long Bui Thi Hong Loan Yasushi Honda |
spellingShingle |
Tran Ngoc Dang Xerxes T. Seposo Nguyen Huu Chau Duc Tran Binh Thang Do Dang An Lai Thi Minh Hang Tran Thanh Long Bui Thi Hong Loan Yasushi Honda Characterizing the relationship between temperature and mortality in tropical and subtropical cities: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis in Hue, Viet Nam, 2009–2013 Global Health Action high temperature effects low temperature effects hot effects cold effects time-series regression |
author_facet |
Tran Ngoc Dang Xerxes T. Seposo Nguyen Huu Chau Duc Tran Binh Thang Do Dang An Lai Thi Minh Hang Tran Thanh Long Bui Thi Hong Loan Yasushi Honda |
author_sort |
Tran Ngoc Dang |
title |
Characterizing the relationship between temperature and mortality in tropical and subtropical cities: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis in Hue, Viet Nam, 2009–2013 |
title_short |
Characterizing the relationship between temperature and mortality in tropical and subtropical cities: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis in Hue, Viet Nam, 2009–2013 |
title_full |
Characterizing the relationship between temperature and mortality in tropical and subtropical cities: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis in Hue, Viet Nam, 2009–2013 |
title_fullStr |
Characterizing the relationship between temperature and mortality in tropical and subtropical cities: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis in Hue, Viet Nam, 2009–2013 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Characterizing the relationship between temperature and mortality in tropical and subtropical cities: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis in Hue, Viet Nam, 2009–2013 |
title_sort |
characterizing the relationship between temperature and mortality in tropical and subtropical cities: a distributed lag non-linear model analysis in hue, viet nam, 2009–2013 |
publisher |
Taylor & Francis Group |
series |
Global Health Action |
issn |
1654-9880 |
publishDate |
2016-01-01 |
description |
Background: The relationship between temperature and mortality has been found to be U-, V-, or J-shaped in developed temperate countries; however, in developing tropical/subtropical cities, it remains unclear. Objectives: Our goal was to investigate the relationship between temperature and mortality in Hue, a subtropical city in Viet Nam. Design: We collected daily mortality data from the Vietnamese A6 mortality reporting system for 6,214 deceased persons between 2009 and 2013. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the temperature effects on all-cause and cause-specific mortality by assuming negative binomial distribution for count data. We developed an objective-oriented model selection with four steps following the Akaike information criterion (AIC) rule (i.e. a smaller AIC value indicates a better model). Results: High temperature-related mortality was more strongly associated with short lags, whereas low temperature-related mortality was more strongly associated with long lags. The low temperatures increased risk in all-category mortality compared to high temperatures. We observed elevated temperature-mortality risk in vulnerable groups: elderly people (high temperature effect, relative risk [RR]=1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.11–1.83; low temperature effect, RR=2.0, 95% CI=1.13–3.52), females (low temperature effect, RR=2.19, 95% CI=1.14–4.21), people with respiratory disease (high temperature effect, RR=2.45, 95% CI=0.91–6.63), and those with cardiovascular disease (high temperature effect, RR=1.6, 95% CI=1.15–2.22; low temperature effect, RR=1.99, 95% CI=0.92–4.28). Conclusions: In Hue, the temperature significantly increased the risk of mortality, especially in vulnerable groups (i.e. elderly, female, people with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases). These findings may provide a foundation for developing adequate policies to address the effects of temperature on health in Hue City. |
topic |
high temperature effects low temperature effects hot effects cold effects time-series regression |
url |
http://www.globalhealthaction.net/index.php/gha/article/view/28738/pdf_127 |
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