Estimating the burden of dengue and the impact of release of wMel Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in Indonesia: a modelling study
Abstract Background Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes reduce dengue virus transmission, and city-wide releases in Yogyakarta city, Indonesia, are showing promising entomological results. Accurate estimates of the burden of dengue, its spatial distribution and the potential impact of Wolbachia are critic...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
BMC
2019-09-01
|
Series: | BMC Medicine |
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12916-019-1396-4 |
id |
doaj-1b1572a07d7e414f9260f9ba69e1bf2f |
---|---|
record_format |
Article |
spelling |
doaj-1b1572a07d7e414f9260f9ba69e1bf2f2020-11-25T03:22:02ZengBMCBMC Medicine1741-70152019-09-0117111410.1186/s12916-019-1396-4Estimating the burden of dengue and the impact of release of wMel Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in Indonesia: a modelling studyKathleen M. O’Reilly0Emilie Hendrickx1Dinar D. Kharisma2Nandyan N. Wilastonegoro3Lauren B. Carrington4Iqbal R. F. Elyazar5Adam J. Kucharski6Rachel Lowe7Stefan Flasche8David M. Pigott9Robert C. Reiner10W. John Edmunds11Simon I. Hay12Laith Yakob13Donald S. Shepard14Oliver J. Brady15Department of Disease Control, Faculty of Infectious Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineHeller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis UniversityFaculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah MadaOxford University Clinical Research Unit, Wellcome Trust Asia-Africa ProgrammeEijkman Oxford Clinical Research Unit, Eijkman Institute for Molecular BiologyCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineDepartment of Health Metrics Sciences, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of WashingtonDepartment of Health Metrics Sciences, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of WashingtonCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineDepartment of Health Metrics Sciences, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of WashingtonDepartment of Disease Control, Faculty of Infectious Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineHeller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis UniversityCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineAbstract Background Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes reduce dengue virus transmission, and city-wide releases in Yogyakarta city, Indonesia, are showing promising entomological results. Accurate estimates of the burden of dengue, its spatial distribution and the potential impact of Wolbachia are critical in guiding funder and government decisions on its future wider use. Methods Here, we combine multiple modelling methods for burden estimation to predict national case burden disaggregated by severity and map the distribution of burden across the country using three separate data sources. An ensemble of transmission models then predicts the estimated reduction in dengue transmission following a nationwide roll-out of wMel Wolbachia. Results We estimate that 7.8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.8–17.7 million) symptomatic dengue cases occurred in Indonesia in 2015 and were associated with 332,865 (UI 94,175–754,203) lost disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The majority of dengue’s burden was due to non-severe cases that did not seek treatment or were challenging to diagnose in outpatient settings leading to substantial underreporting. Estimated burden was highly concentrated in a small number of large cities with 90% of dengue cases occurring in 15.3% of land area. Implementing a nationwide Wolbachia population replacement programme was estimated to avert 86.2% (UI 36.2–99.9%) of cases over a long-term average. Conclusions These results suggest interventions targeted to the highest burden cities can have a disproportionate impact on dengue burden. Area-wide interventions, such as Wolbachia, that are deployed based on the area covered could protect people more efficiently than individual-based interventions, such as vaccines, in such dense environments.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12916-019-1396-4DengueBurdenWolbachiaEliminationMapsModel |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Kathleen M. O’Reilly Emilie Hendrickx Dinar D. Kharisma Nandyan N. Wilastonegoro Lauren B. Carrington Iqbal R. F. Elyazar Adam J. Kucharski Rachel Lowe Stefan Flasche David M. Pigott Robert C. Reiner W. John Edmunds Simon I. Hay Laith Yakob Donald S. Shepard Oliver J. Brady |
spellingShingle |
Kathleen M. O’Reilly Emilie Hendrickx Dinar D. Kharisma Nandyan N. Wilastonegoro Lauren B. Carrington Iqbal R. F. Elyazar Adam J. Kucharski Rachel Lowe Stefan Flasche David M. Pigott Robert C. Reiner W. John Edmunds Simon I. Hay Laith Yakob Donald S. Shepard Oliver J. Brady Estimating the burden of dengue and the impact of release of wMel Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in Indonesia: a modelling study BMC Medicine Dengue Burden Wolbachia Elimination Maps Model |
author_facet |
Kathleen M. O’Reilly Emilie Hendrickx Dinar D. Kharisma Nandyan N. Wilastonegoro Lauren B. Carrington Iqbal R. F. Elyazar Adam J. Kucharski Rachel Lowe Stefan Flasche David M. Pigott Robert C. Reiner W. John Edmunds Simon I. Hay Laith Yakob Donald S. Shepard Oliver J. Brady |
author_sort |
Kathleen M. O’Reilly |
title |
Estimating the burden of dengue and the impact of release of wMel Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in Indonesia: a modelling study |
title_short |
Estimating the burden of dengue and the impact of release of wMel Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in Indonesia: a modelling study |
title_full |
Estimating the burden of dengue and the impact of release of wMel Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in Indonesia: a modelling study |
title_fullStr |
Estimating the burden of dengue and the impact of release of wMel Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in Indonesia: a modelling study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating the burden of dengue and the impact of release of wMel Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in Indonesia: a modelling study |
title_sort |
estimating the burden of dengue and the impact of release of wmel wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in indonesia: a modelling study |
publisher |
BMC |
series |
BMC Medicine |
issn |
1741-7015 |
publishDate |
2019-09-01 |
description |
Abstract Background Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes reduce dengue virus transmission, and city-wide releases in Yogyakarta city, Indonesia, are showing promising entomological results. Accurate estimates of the burden of dengue, its spatial distribution and the potential impact of Wolbachia are critical in guiding funder and government decisions on its future wider use. Methods Here, we combine multiple modelling methods for burden estimation to predict national case burden disaggregated by severity and map the distribution of burden across the country using three separate data sources. An ensemble of transmission models then predicts the estimated reduction in dengue transmission following a nationwide roll-out of wMel Wolbachia. Results We estimate that 7.8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.8–17.7 million) symptomatic dengue cases occurred in Indonesia in 2015 and were associated with 332,865 (UI 94,175–754,203) lost disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The majority of dengue’s burden was due to non-severe cases that did not seek treatment or were challenging to diagnose in outpatient settings leading to substantial underreporting. Estimated burden was highly concentrated in a small number of large cities with 90% of dengue cases occurring in 15.3% of land area. Implementing a nationwide Wolbachia population replacement programme was estimated to avert 86.2% (UI 36.2–99.9%) of cases over a long-term average. Conclusions These results suggest interventions targeted to the highest burden cities can have a disproportionate impact on dengue burden. Area-wide interventions, such as Wolbachia, that are deployed based on the area covered could protect people more efficiently than individual-based interventions, such as vaccines, in such dense environments. |
topic |
Dengue Burden Wolbachia Elimination Maps Model |
url |
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12916-019-1396-4 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT kathleenmoreilly estimatingtheburdenofdengueandtheimpactofreleaseofwmelwolbachiainfectedmosquitoesinindonesiaamodellingstudy AT emiliehendrickx estimatingtheburdenofdengueandtheimpactofreleaseofwmelwolbachiainfectedmosquitoesinindonesiaamodellingstudy AT dinardkharisma estimatingtheburdenofdengueandtheimpactofreleaseofwmelwolbachiainfectedmosquitoesinindonesiaamodellingstudy AT nandyannwilastonegoro estimatingtheburdenofdengueandtheimpactofreleaseofwmelwolbachiainfectedmosquitoesinindonesiaamodellingstudy AT laurenbcarrington estimatingtheburdenofdengueandtheimpactofreleaseofwmelwolbachiainfectedmosquitoesinindonesiaamodellingstudy AT iqbalrfelyazar estimatingtheburdenofdengueandtheimpactofreleaseofwmelwolbachiainfectedmosquitoesinindonesiaamodellingstudy AT adamjkucharski estimatingtheburdenofdengueandtheimpactofreleaseofwmelwolbachiainfectedmosquitoesinindonesiaamodellingstudy AT rachellowe estimatingtheburdenofdengueandtheimpactofreleaseofwmelwolbachiainfectedmosquitoesinindonesiaamodellingstudy AT stefanflasche estimatingtheburdenofdengueandtheimpactofreleaseofwmelwolbachiainfectedmosquitoesinindonesiaamodellingstudy AT davidmpigott estimatingtheburdenofdengueandtheimpactofreleaseofwmelwolbachiainfectedmosquitoesinindonesiaamodellingstudy AT robertcreiner estimatingtheburdenofdengueandtheimpactofreleaseofwmelwolbachiainfectedmosquitoesinindonesiaamodellingstudy AT wjohnedmunds estimatingtheburdenofdengueandtheimpactofreleaseofwmelwolbachiainfectedmosquitoesinindonesiaamodellingstudy AT simonihay estimatingtheburdenofdengueandtheimpactofreleaseofwmelwolbachiainfectedmosquitoesinindonesiaamodellingstudy AT laithyakob estimatingtheburdenofdengueandtheimpactofreleaseofwmelwolbachiainfectedmosquitoesinindonesiaamodellingstudy AT donaldsshepard estimatingtheburdenofdengueandtheimpactofreleaseofwmelwolbachiainfectedmosquitoesinindonesiaamodellingstudy AT oliverjbrady estimatingtheburdenofdengueandtheimpactofreleaseofwmelwolbachiainfectedmosquitoesinindonesiaamodellingstudy |
_version_ |
1724611601663787008 |