| Summary: | Abstract We aimed to develop two models to estimate first AMI and stroke/TIA, respectively, in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients, by applying backward elimination to the following variables: age, sex, duration of diabetes, smoking, BMI, and use of antihyperglycemic drugs, statins, and aspirin. As time-varying covariates, we analyzed blood pressure, albuminuria, lipid profile, HbA1c, retinopathy, neuropathy, and atrial fibrillation (only in stroke/TIA model). Both models were stratified by antihypertensive drugs. We evaluated 2980 patients (52.8% women; 67.3 ± 11.2 years) with 24,159 person-years of follow-up. We recorded 114 cases of AMI and 185 cases of stroke/TIA. The factors that were independently associated with first AMI were age (≥ 75 years vs. < 75 years) (p = 0.019), higher HbA1c (> 64 mmol/mol vs. < 53 mmol/mol) (p = 0.003), HDL-cholesterol (0.90–1.81 mmol/L vs. < 0.90 mmol/L) (p = 0.002), and diastolic blood pressure (65–85 mmHg vs. < 65 mmHg) (p < 0.001). The factors that were independently associated with first stroke/TIA were age (≥ 75 years vs. < 60 years) (p < 0.001), atrial fibrillation (first year after the diagnosis vs. more than one year) (p = 0.001), glomerular filtration rate (per each 15 mL/min/1.73 m2 decrease) (p < 0.001), total cholesterol (3.88–6.46 mmol/L vs. < 3.88 mmol/L) (p < 0.001), triglycerides (per each increment of 1.13 mmol/L) (p = 0.031), albuminuria (p < 0.001), neuropathy (p = 0.01), and retinopathy (p = 0.023).
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