Modeling quarantine during epidemics and mass-testing using drones.

Modeling quarantine during epidemics and mass-testing using drones.

We extend the classical SIR epidemic spread model by introducing the "quarantined" compartment. We solve (numerically) the differential equations that govern the extended model and quantify how quarantining "flattens the curve" for the proportion of infected population over time....

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Leonid Sedov, Alexander Krasnochub, Valentin Polishchuk
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2020-01-01
Series:PLoS ONE
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0235307
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spelling doaj-1cf7379e7e204632bc35bf086a7f538a2021-03-04T11:54:32ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032020-01-01156e023530710.1371/journal.pone.0235307Modeling quarantine during epidemics and mass-testing using drones.Leonid SedovAlexander KrasnochubValentin PolishchukWe extend the classical SIR epidemic spread model by introducing the "quarantined" compartment. We solve (numerically) the differential equations that govern the extended model and quantify how quarantining "flattens the curve" for the proportion of infected population over time. Furthermore, we explore the potential of using drones to deliver tests, enabling mass-testing for the infection; we give a method to estimate the drone fleet needed to deliver the tests in a metropolitan area. Application of our models to COVID-19 spread in Sweden shows how the proposed methods could substantially decrease the peak number of infected people, almost without increasing the duration of the epidemic.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0235307
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Leonid Sedov
Alexander Krasnochub
Valentin Polishchuk
spellingShingle Leonid Sedov
Alexander Krasnochub
Valentin Polishchuk
Modeling quarantine during epidemics and mass-testing using drones.
PLoS ONE
author_facet Leonid Sedov
Alexander Krasnochub
Valentin Polishchuk
author_sort Leonid Sedov
title Modeling quarantine during epidemics and mass-testing using drones.
title_short Modeling quarantine during epidemics and mass-testing using drones.
title_full Modeling quarantine during epidemics and mass-testing using drones.
title_fullStr Modeling quarantine during epidemics and mass-testing using drones.
title_full_unstemmed Modeling quarantine during epidemics and mass-testing using drones.
title_sort modeling quarantine during epidemics and mass-testing using drones.
publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
series PLoS ONE
issn 1932-6203
publishDate 2020-01-01
description We extend the classical SIR epidemic spread model by introducing the "quarantined" compartment. We solve (numerically) the differential equations that govern the extended model and quantify how quarantining "flattens the curve" for the proportion of infected population over time. Furthermore, we explore the potential of using drones to deliver tests, enabling mass-testing for the infection; we give a method to estimate the drone fleet needed to deliver the tests in a metropolitan area. Application of our models to COVID-19 spread in Sweden shows how the proposed methods could substantially decrease the peak number of infected people, almost without increasing the duration of the epidemic.
url https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0235307
work_keys_str_mv AT leonidsedov modelingquarantineduringepidemicsandmasstestingusingdrones
AT alexanderkrasnochub modelingquarantineduringepidemicsandmasstestingusingdrones
AT valentinpolishchuk modelingquarantineduringepidemicsandmasstestingusingdrones
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