Operational Efficiency Forecasting Model of an Existing Underground Mine Using Grey System Theory and Stochastic Diffusion Processes
Forecasting the operational efficiency of an existing underground mine plays an important role in strategic planning of production. Degree of Operating Leverage (DOL) is used to express the operational efficiency of production. The forecasting model should be able to involve common time horizon, tak...
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Series: | Mathematical Problems in Engineering |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/610307 |
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doaj-1d0faf80d31f4fbc92800284c1134d3e2020-11-24T23:44:09ZengHindawi LimitedMathematical Problems in Engineering1024-123X1563-51472015-01-01201510.1155/2015/610307610307Operational Efficiency Forecasting Model of an Existing Underground Mine Using Grey System Theory and Stochastic Diffusion ProcessesSvetlana Strbac Savic0Jasmina Nedeljkovic Ostojic1Zoran Gligoric2Cedomir Cvijovic3Snezana Aleksandrovic4The School of Electrical and Computer Engineering of Applied Studies, Vojvode Stepe 283, 11000 Belgrade, SerbiaBelgrade University College of Applied Studies in Civil Engineering and Geodesy, Department of Geodesy, Hajduk Stanka 2, 11000 Belgrade, SerbiaFaculty of Mining and Geology, University of Belgrade, Djusina 7, 11000 Belgrade, SerbiaBelgrade University College of Applied Studies in Civil Engineering and Geodesy, Department of Geodesy, Hajduk Stanka 2, 11000 Belgrade, SerbiaFaculty of Mining and Geology, University of Belgrade, Djusina 7, 11000 Belgrade, SerbiaForecasting the operational efficiency of an existing underground mine plays an important role in strategic planning of production. Degree of Operating Leverage (DOL) is used to express the operational efficiency of production. The forecasting model should be able to involve common time horizon, taking the characteristics of the input variables that directly affect the value of DOL. Changes in the magnitude of any input variable change the value of DOL. To establish the relationship describing the way of changing we applied multivariable grey modeling. Established time sequence multivariable response formula is also used to forecast the future values of operating leverage. Operational efficiency of production is often associated with diverse sources of uncertainties. Incorporation of these uncertainties into multivariable forecasting model enables mining company to survive in today’s competitive environment. Simulation of mean reversion process and geometric Brownian motion is used to describe the stochastic diffusion nature of metal price, as a key element of revenues, and production costs, respectively. By simulating a forecasting model, we imitate its action in order to measure its response to different inputs. The final result of simulation process is the expected value of DOL for every year of defined time horizon.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/610307 |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Svetlana Strbac Savic Jasmina Nedeljkovic Ostojic Zoran Gligoric Cedomir Cvijovic Snezana Aleksandrovic |
spellingShingle |
Svetlana Strbac Savic Jasmina Nedeljkovic Ostojic Zoran Gligoric Cedomir Cvijovic Snezana Aleksandrovic Operational Efficiency Forecasting Model of an Existing Underground Mine Using Grey System Theory and Stochastic Diffusion Processes Mathematical Problems in Engineering |
author_facet |
Svetlana Strbac Savic Jasmina Nedeljkovic Ostojic Zoran Gligoric Cedomir Cvijovic Snezana Aleksandrovic |
author_sort |
Svetlana Strbac Savic |
title |
Operational Efficiency Forecasting Model of an Existing Underground Mine Using Grey System Theory and Stochastic Diffusion Processes |
title_short |
Operational Efficiency Forecasting Model of an Existing Underground Mine Using Grey System Theory and Stochastic Diffusion Processes |
title_full |
Operational Efficiency Forecasting Model of an Existing Underground Mine Using Grey System Theory and Stochastic Diffusion Processes |
title_fullStr |
Operational Efficiency Forecasting Model of an Existing Underground Mine Using Grey System Theory and Stochastic Diffusion Processes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Operational Efficiency Forecasting Model of an Existing Underground Mine Using Grey System Theory and Stochastic Diffusion Processes |
title_sort |
operational efficiency forecasting model of an existing underground mine using grey system theory and stochastic diffusion processes |
publisher |
Hindawi Limited |
series |
Mathematical Problems in Engineering |
issn |
1024-123X 1563-5147 |
publishDate |
2015-01-01 |
description |
Forecasting the operational efficiency of an existing underground mine plays an important role in strategic planning of production. Degree of Operating Leverage (DOL) is used to express the operational efficiency of production. The forecasting model should be able to involve common time horizon, taking the characteristics of the input variables that directly affect the value of DOL. Changes in the magnitude of any input variable change the value of DOL. To establish the relationship describing the way of changing we applied multivariable grey modeling. Established time sequence multivariable response formula is also used to forecast the future values of operating leverage. Operational efficiency of production is often associated with diverse sources of uncertainties. Incorporation of these uncertainties into multivariable forecasting model enables mining company to survive in today’s competitive environment. Simulation of mean reversion process and geometric Brownian motion is used to describe the stochastic diffusion nature of metal price, as a key element of revenues, and production costs, respectively. By simulating a forecasting model, we imitate its action in order to measure its response to different inputs. The final result of simulation process is the expected value of DOL for every year of defined time horizon. |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/610307 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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