MAIZE YIELD SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN SOUTH AFRICA: APPLICATION OF THE ARDL-ECM APPROAC
Climate affects crop production decisions and outcomes in agriculture. From very short-term decisions about which crops to grow, when to plant or harvest a field, to longer-term decisions about farm investments, climate can positively or negatively affect agricultural systems. Although the general...
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doaj-1e25bfb862e2427d842f574e35075f0d2020-11-25T03:34:48ZengUniversity of Life Sciences in PoznańJournal of Agribusiness and Rural Development1899-52411899-57722019-12-0154410.17306/J.JARD.2019.01201MAIZE YIELD SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN SOUTH AFRICA: APPLICATION OF THE ARDL-ECM APPROACRangarirai Roy Shoko0Abenet Belete1Petronella Chaminuka2Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Limpopo, 0727, SovengaAgricultural Research CouncilAgricultural Research Council Climate affects crop production decisions and outcomes in agriculture. From very short-term decisions about which crops to grow, when to plant or harvest a field, to longer-term decisions about farm investments, climate can positively or negatively affect agricultural systems. Although the general effects of climate change on agriculture are broadly understood, there are limited studies that model the relationship between specific crops and climate variables. The study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the sensitivity of maize yield to climate variables, fertilizer use and other non-climate variables. This paper uses annual time-series data of 47 observations spanning from 1970 to 2016. The results reveal that rainfall and temperature are important maize yield drivers in South Africa. However, if excessive, they will produce negative effects. The findings of this analysis are relevant for designing long-term interventions to mitigate the effects of climate change on maize production. http://www1.up.poznan.pl/jard/index.php/jard/article/view/1201maizeclimate variabilityARDL modelcointegration |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Rangarirai Roy Shoko Abenet Belete Petronella Chaminuka |
spellingShingle |
Rangarirai Roy Shoko Abenet Belete Petronella Chaminuka MAIZE YIELD SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN SOUTH AFRICA: APPLICATION OF THE ARDL-ECM APPROAC Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development maize climate variability ARDL model cointegration |
author_facet |
Rangarirai Roy Shoko Abenet Belete Petronella Chaminuka |
author_sort |
Rangarirai Roy Shoko |
title |
MAIZE YIELD SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN SOUTH AFRICA: APPLICATION OF THE ARDL-ECM APPROAC |
title_short |
MAIZE YIELD SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN SOUTH AFRICA: APPLICATION OF THE ARDL-ECM APPROAC |
title_full |
MAIZE YIELD SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN SOUTH AFRICA: APPLICATION OF THE ARDL-ECM APPROAC |
title_fullStr |
MAIZE YIELD SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN SOUTH AFRICA: APPLICATION OF THE ARDL-ECM APPROAC |
title_full_unstemmed |
MAIZE YIELD SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN SOUTH AFRICA: APPLICATION OF THE ARDL-ECM APPROAC |
title_sort |
maize yield sensitivity to climate variability in south africa: application of the ardl-ecm approac |
publisher |
University of Life Sciences in Poznań |
series |
Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development |
issn |
1899-5241 1899-5772 |
publishDate |
2019-12-01 |
description |
Climate affects crop production decisions and outcomes in agriculture. From very short-term decisions about which crops to grow, when to plant or harvest a field, to longer-term decisions about farm investments, climate can positively or negatively affect agricultural systems. Although the general effects of climate change on agriculture are broadly understood, there are limited studies that model the relationship between specific crops and climate variables. The study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the sensitivity of maize yield to climate variables, fertilizer use and other non-climate variables. This paper uses annual time-series data of 47 observations spanning from 1970 to 2016. The results reveal that rainfall and temperature are important maize yield drivers in South Africa. However, if excessive, they will produce negative effects. The findings of this analysis are relevant for designing long-term interventions to mitigate the effects of climate change on maize production.
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topic |
maize climate variability ARDL model cointegration |
url |
http://www1.up.poznan.pl/jard/index.php/jard/article/view/1201 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT rangarirairoyshoko maizeyieldsensitivitytoclimatevariabilityinsouthafricaapplicationoftheardlecmapproac AT abenetbelete maizeyieldsensitivitytoclimatevariabilityinsouthafricaapplicationoftheardlecmapproac AT petronellachaminuka maizeyieldsensitivitytoclimatevariabilityinsouthafricaapplicationoftheardlecmapproac |
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1724557353166045184 |