Development and validation of a postoperative nomogram for predicting overall survival after endoscopic surgical management of olfactory neuroblastoma
Background: Olfactory neuroblastoma (ONB) is a rare malignancy arising in the nasal vault. Endoscopic resection has been reported to improve overall survival (OS). At present, clinicopathological predictors of the prognosis of ONB remain undefined. Methods: Data including demographics, clinical char...
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doaj-1f3546a8fa8b4f249ce832807f592d492020-12-03T04:32:26ZengElsevierEClinicalMedicine2589-53702020-12-0129100577Development and validation of a postoperative nomogram for predicting overall survival after endoscopic surgical management of olfactory neuroblastomaJingyi Yang0Xiaole Song1Yuting Lai2Weidong Zhao3Jiaying Zhou4Quan Liu5Wanpeng Li6Huankang Zhang7Huan Wang8Peng Shi9Hongmeng Yu10Xicai Sun11Dehui Wang12Department of Otolaryngology, Eye and ENT Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200031, PR ChinaDepartment of Otolaryngology, Eye and ENT Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200031, PR ChinaDepartment of Otolaryngology, Eye and ENT Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200031, PR ChinaDepartment of Nasal and Cranial Surgery, Eye and ENT Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200031, PR ChinaDepartment of Otolaryngology, Eye and ENT Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200031, PR ChinaDepartment of Otolaryngology, Eye and ENT Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200031, PR ChinaDepartment of Otolaryngology, Eye and ENT Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200031, PR ChinaDepartment of Otolaryngology, Eye and ENT Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200031, PR ChinaDepartment of Otolaryngology, Eye and ENT Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200031, PR ChinaDepartment of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang 110000, PR ChinaDepartment of Otolaryngology, Eye and ENT Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200031, PR China; Research Units of New Technologies of Endoscopic Surgery in Skull Base Tumor, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Shanghai 200031, PR China; Corresponding authors.Department of Otolaryngology, Eye and ENT Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200031, PR China; Corresponding authors.Department of Otolaryngology, Eye and ENT Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200031, PR China; Corresponding authors.Background: Olfactory neuroblastoma (ONB) is a rare malignancy arising in the nasal vault. Endoscopic resection has been reported to improve overall survival (OS). At present, clinicopathological predictors of the prognosis of ONB remain undefined. Methods: Data including demographics, clinical characteristics and follow-up information of ONB patients treated with endoscopic surgery were collected. Risk factors on OS rates were investigated by LASSO and Cox analyses. A nomogram was developed and evaluated with internal validation. Risk groups were established according to patients’ points in the nomogram. Findings: 154 ONB patients treated with surgery were included in this single center study. A nomogram based on multivariate Cox regression model including multiple tumor history, orbital invasion, carotid canal invasion, modified Kadish stage, delivery sequence of RT and surgery, sequence of chemotherapy and surgery was developed. The bias-corrected C-index (0.886 [95% CI: 0.843-0.943]) was significantly higher than of conventional staging classifications. The AUC of nomogram regarding 1-, 2- and 5-year OS probabilities reached 0.912, 0.929 and 0.957, respectively. The risk levels based on nomogram points were more discriminative than conventional classifications. Interpretation: Validation analysis showed good predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram. Therefore, the nomogram could be utilized to individually predict survival probability for ONB patients after endoscopic resection. Funding: This study was funded by the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (No. 2019-I2M-5-003), the Shanghai Science and Technology Commission (No. 19411950600), the Shanghai Hospital Development Center (No. SHDC12018118) and the Eye, Ear, Nose and Throat Hospital of Fudan University (No. SYB202006).http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589537020303217Olfactory neuroblastomaEndoscopic surgeryOverall survivalNomogram |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Jingyi Yang Xiaole Song Yuting Lai Weidong Zhao Jiaying Zhou Quan Liu Wanpeng Li Huankang Zhang Huan Wang Peng Shi Hongmeng Yu Xicai Sun Dehui Wang |
spellingShingle |
Jingyi Yang Xiaole Song Yuting Lai Weidong Zhao Jiaying Zhou Quan Liu Wanpeng Li Huankang Zhang Huan Wang Peng Shi Hongmeng Yu Xicai Sun Dehui Wang Development and validation of a postoperative nomogram for predicting overall survival after endoscopic surgical management of olfactory neuroblastoma EClinicalMedicine Olfactory neuroblastoma Endoscopic surgery Overall survival Nomogram |
author_facet |
Jingyi Yang Xiaole Song Yuting Lai Weidong Zhao Jiaying Zhou Quan Liu Wanpeng Li Huankang Zhang Huan Wang Peng Shi Hongmeng Yu Xicai Sun Dehui Wang |
author_sort |
Jingyi Yang |
title |
Development and validation of a postoperative nomogram for predicting overall survival after endoscopic surgical management of olfactory neuroblastoma |
title_short |
Development and validation of a postoperative nomogram for predicting overall survival after endoscopic surgical management of olfactory neuroblastoma |
title_full |
Development and validation of a postoperative nomogram for predicting overall survival after endoscopic surgical management of olfactory neuroblastoma |
title_fullStr |
Development and validation of a postoperative nomogram for predicting overall survival after endoscopic surgical management of olfactory neuroblastoma |
title_full_unstemmed |
Development and validation of a postoperative nomogram for predicting overall survival after endoscopic surgical management of olfactory neuroblastoma |
title_sort |
development and validation of a postoperative nomogram for predicting overall survival after endoscopic surgical management of olfactory neuroblastoma |
publisher |
Elsevier |
series |
EClinicalMedicine |
issn |
2589-5370 |
publishDate |
2020-12-01 |
description |
Background: Olfactory neuroblastoma (ONB) is a rare malignancy arising in the nasal vault. Endoscopic resection has been reported to improve overall survival (OS). At present, clinicopathological predictors of the prognosis of ONB remain undefined. Methods: Data including demographics, clinical characteristics and follow-up information of ONB patients treated with endoscopic surgery were collected. Risk factors on OS rates were investigated by LASSO and Cox analyses. A nomogram was developed and evaluated with internal validation. Risk groups were established according to patients’ points in the nomogram. Findings: 154 ONB patients treated with surgery were included in this single center study. A nomogram based on multivariate Cox regression model including multiple tumor history, orbital invasion, carotid canal invasion, modified Kadish stage, delivery sequence of RT and surgery, sequence of chemotherapy and surgery was developed. The bias-corrected C-index (0.886 [95% CI: 0.843-0.943]) was significantly higher than of conventional staging classifications. The AUC of nomogram regarding 1-, 2- and 5-year OS probabilities reached 0.912, 0.929 and 0.957, respectively. The risk levels based on nomogram points were more discriminative than conventional classifications. Interpretation: Validation analysis showed good predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram. Therefore, the nomogram could be utilized to individually predict survival probability for ONB patients after endoscopic resection. Funding: This study was funded by the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (No. 2019-I2M-5-003), the Shanghai Science and Technology Commission (No. 19411950600), the Shanghai Hospital Development Center (No. SHDC12018118) and the Eye, Ear, Nose and Throat Hospital of Fudan University (No. SYB202006). |
topic |
Olfactory neuroblastoma Endoscopic surgery Overall survival Nomogram |
url |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589537020303217 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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