What is a surprise earthquake? The example of the 2002, San Giuliano (Italy) event
Both in scientific literature and in the mass media, some earthquakes are defined as «surprise earthquakes». Based on his own judgment, probably any geologist, seismologist or engineer may have his own list of past «surprise earthquakes». This paper tries to quantify the underlying...
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doaj-1fc10df3c28843eab746244c8ae64e9a2020-11-24T22:39:28ZengIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)Annals of Geophysics1593-52132037-416X2005-06-0148210.4401/ag-3200What is a surprise earthquake? The example of the 2002, San Giuliano (Italy) eventM. MucciarelliBoth in scientific literature and in the mass media, some earthquakes are defined as «surprise earthquakes». Based on his own judgment, probably any geologist, seismologist or engineer may have his own list of past «surprise earthquakes». This paper tries to quantify the underlying individual perception that may lead a scientist to apply such a definition to a seismic event. The meaning is different, depending on the disciplinary approach. For geologists, the Italian database of seismogenic sources is still too incomplete to allow for a quantitative estimate of the subjective degree of belief. For seismologists, quantification is possible defining the distance between an earthquake and its closest previous neighbor. Finally, for engineers, the San Giuliano quake could not be considered a surprise, since probabilistic site hazard estimates reveal that the change before and after the earthquake is just 4%.http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/3200earthquake statisticsMolise earthquake |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
M. Mucciarelli |
spellingShingle |
M. Mucciarelli What is a surprise earthquake? The example of the 2002, San Giuliano (Italy) event Annals of Geophysics earthquake statistics Molise earthquake |
author_facet |
M. Mucciarelli |
author_sort |
M. Mucciarelli |
title |
What is a surprise earthquake? The example of the 2002, San Giuliano (Italy) event |
title_short |
What is a surprise earthquake? The example of the 2002, San Giuliano (Italy) event |
title_full |
What is a surprise earthquake? The example of the 2002, San Giuliano (Italy) event |
title_fullStr |
What is a surprise earthquake? The example of the 2002, San Giuliano (Italy) event |
title_full_unstemmed |
What is a surprise earthquake? The example of the 2002, San Giuliano (Italy) event |
title_sort |
what is a surprise earthquake? the example of the 2002, san giuliano (italy) event |
publisher |
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) |
series |
Annals of Geophysics |
issn |
1593-5213 2037-416X |
publishDate |
2005-06-01 |
description |
Both in scientific literature and in the mass media, some earthquakes are defined as «surprise earthquakes». Based on his own judgment, probably any geologist, seismologist or engineer may have his own list of past «surprise earthquakes». This paper tries to quantify the underlying individual perception that may lead a scientist to apply such a definition to a seismic event. The meaning is different, depending on the disciplinary approach. For geologists, the Italian database of seismogenic sources is still too incomplete to allow for a quantitative estimate of the subjective degree of belief. For seismologists, quantification is possible defining the distance between an earthquake and its closest previous neighbor. Finally, for engineers, the San Giuliano quake could not be considered a surprise, since probabilistic site hazard estimates reveal that the change before and after the earthquake is just 4%. |
topic |
earthquake statistics Molise earthquake |
url |
http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/3200 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT mmucciarelli whatisasurpriseearthquaketheexampleofthe2002sangiulianoitalyevent |
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