Characterization of Spatio-Temporal Trends and Periodicity of Precipitation over Malawi during 1979–2015

• Main Authors: Edwin Tadeyo, Dan Chen, Brian Ayugi, Chunzhen Yao
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2020-08-01
• Series: Atmosphere
• Subjects: climate change; Malawi; rainfall trend; periodicity
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/9/891

Precipitation remains the key climatic parameter in sub-Saharan Africa, as it drives the economy through rain-fed agricultural production. Malawi is one of the countries most susceptible to the impacts of climate change and variability. This paper presents the characteristics of spatio-temporal trends and periodicity of precipitation in Malawi in the period from 1979 to 2015. The analysis was based on recent rain ground gauge data. In total, 31 out of 36 rainfall stations, which include some key stations from the southeast of Malawi, were selected for the study after robust homogeneity tests were applied to the datasets. Spatial distribution of annual mean precipitation showed that high amounts of rainfall are located in areas along the lake and the southeast part of Malawi. The spatial distribution of the wet season (November to April) precipitation from EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) analysis revealed ten wet years (1985, 1986, 1989, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2006, 2007, and 2015) and ten dry years (1981, 1983, 1987, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1995, 2005, 2011, and 2014). In general, the temporal trends analyses of seasonal (wet season) and annual precipitations both displayed slight decreasing slopes during the 37 years. The trend of precipitation per decade displayed an increase in precipitation during 1980s and 1990s, followed by a decrease in the 21st century. Furthermore, the analysis of the spatial and temporal variability and trends of rainfall showed that northern and central Malawi displayed a clearer variability than southern Malawi. Although the trends of most of the stations are not significant at 95% confidence level, the decreasing rates of rainfall in the last decade and the decreasing trends on wet season and annual scale detected by Mann–Kendall tests require closer monitoring of rainfall changes in the near future. The stations which exhibited significant trends (Naminjiwa and Dedza stations) also call for closer monitoring, since the area relies heavily on rain-fed agriculture for economic sustenance.