Impact of Climate Change on Combined Solar and Run-of-River Power in Northern Italy
Moving towards energy systems with high variable renewable energy shares requires a good understanding of the impacts of climate change on the energy penetration. To do so, most prior impact studies have considered climate projections available from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). Other studies ap...
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Published: |
MDPI AG
2018-01-01
|
Series: | Energies |
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/2/290 |
id |
doaj-253fe2510eb0462db0530103a8b5c681 |
---|---|
record_format |
Article |
spelling |
doaj-253fe2510eb0462db0530103a8b5c6812020-11-24T21:37:20ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732018-01-0111229010.3390/en11020290en11020290Impact of Climate Change on Combined Solar and Run-of-River Power in Northern ItalyBaptiste François0Benoit Hingray1Marco Borga2Davide Zoccatelli3Casey Brown4Jean-Dominique Creutin5Université de Grenoble-Alpes, CNRS, IGE, F-38000 Grenoble, FranceUniversité de Grenoble-Alpes, CNRS, IGE, F-38000 Grenoble, FranceDepartment of Land, Environment, Agriculture and Forestry, University of Padova, IT-35020 Padova, ItalyDepartment of Geography, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem 9190401, IsraelDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA 01003-9303, USAUniversité de Grenoble-Alpes, CNRS, IGE, F-38000 Grenoble, FranceMoving towards energy systems with high variable renewable energy shares requires a good understanding of the impacts of climate change on the energy penetration. To do so, most prior impact studies have considered climate projections available from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). Other studies apply sensitivity analyses on the climate variables that drive the system behavior to inform how much the system changes due to climate change. In the present work, we apply the Decision Scaling approach, a framework merging these two approaches, for analyzing a renewables-only scenario for the electric system of Northern Italy where the main renewable sources are solar and hydropower. Decision Scaling explores the system sensibility to a range of future plausible climate states. GCM projections are considered to estimate probabilities of the future climate states. We focus on the likely future energy mix within the region (25% of solar photovoltaic and 75% of hydropower). We also carry out a sensitivity analysis according to the storage capacity. The results show that run-of-the river power generation from this Alpine area is expected to increase although the average inflow decreases under climate change. They also show that the penetration rate is expected to increase for systems with storage capacity less than one month of average load and inversely for higher storage capacity.http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/2/290solar powerrun-of-the river powerenergy mixDecision Scalingclimate change |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Baptiste François Benoit Hingray Marco Borga Davide Zoccatelli Casey Brown Jean-Dominique Creutin |
spellingShingle |
Baptiste François Benoit Hingray Marco Borga Davide Zoccatelli Casey Brown Jean-Dominique Creutin Impact of Climate Change on Combined Solar and Run-of-River Power in Northern Italy Energies solar power run-of-the river power energy mix Decision Scaling climate change |
author_facet |
Baptiste François Benoit Hingray Marco Borga Davide Zoccatelli Casey Brown Jean-Dominique Creutin |
author_sort |
Baptiste François |
title |
Impact of Climate Change on Combined Solar and Run-of-River Power in Northern Italy |
title_short |
Impact of Climate Change on Combined Solar and Run-of-River Power in Northern Italy |
title_full |
Impact of Climate Change on Combined Solar and Run-of-River Power in Northern Italy |
title_fullStr |
Impact of Climate Change on Combined Solar and Run-of-River Power in Northern Italy |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of Climate Change on Combined Solar and Run-of-River Power in Northern Italy |
title_sort |
impact of climate change on combined solar and run-of-river power in northern italy |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Energies |
issn |
1996-1073 |
publishDate |
2018-01-01 |
description |
Moving towards energy systems with high variable renewable energy shares requires a good understanding of the impacts of climate change on the energy penetration. To do so, most prior impact studies have considered climate projections available from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). Other studies apply sensitivity analyses on the climate variables that drive the system behavior to inform how much the system changes due to climate change. In the present work, we apply the Decision Scaling approach, a framework merging these two approaches, for analyzing a renewables-only scenario for the electric system of Northern Italy where the main renewable sources are solar and hydropower. Decision Scaling explores the system sensibility to a range of future plausible climate states. GCM projections are considered to estimate probabilities of the future climate states. We focus on the likely future energy mix within the region (25% of solar photovoltaic and 75% of hydropower). We also carry out a sensitivity analysis according to the storage capacity. The results show that run-of-the river power generation from this Alpine area is expected to increase although the average inflow decreases under climate change. They also show that the penetration rate is expected to increase for systems with storage capacity less than one month of average load and inversely for higher storage capacity. |
topic |
solar power run-of-the river power energy mix Decision Scaling climate change |
url |
http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/2/290 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT baptistefrancois impactofclimatechangeoncombinedsolarandrunofriverpowerinnorthernitaly AT benoithingray impactofclimatechangeoncombinedsolarandrunofriverpowerinnorthernitaly AT marcoborga impactofclimatechangeoncombinedsolarandrunofriverpowerinnorthernitaly AT davidezoccatelli impactofclimatechangeoncombinedsolarandrunofriverpowerinnorthernitaly AT caseybrown impactofclimatechangeoncombinedsolarandrunofriverpowerinnorthernitaly AT jeandominiquecreutin impactofclimatechangeoncombinedsolarandrunofriverpowerinnorthernitaly |
_version_ |
1725936939624824832 |