Scenario-Based Risk Assessment of Earthquake Disaster Using Slope Displacement, PGA, and Population Density in the Guyuan Region, China

• Main Authors: Jianqi Zhuang, Jianbing Peng, Xinghua Zhu, Weiliang Huang
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2019-02-01
• Series: ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information
• Subjects: scenario; earthquake disaster; risk assessment; Haiyuan fault; Liupanshan fault
• Online Access: https://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/8/2/85

Mega-earthquakes that occur in mountainous areas of densely populated cities are particularly catastrophic, triggering large landslides, destroying more buildings, and usually resulting in significant death tolls. In this paper, earthquake scenarios in the Guyuan Region of China are used as an example to study earthquake disaster risk assessment and a method of assessment is proposed that uses the peak ground acceleration (PGA), landslides triggered by the earthquake, and the effects on the population. The method is used to develop scenarios for earthquake disaster risk assessment along the Haiyuan and Liupanshan Faults for earthquake magnitudes of <i>Ms</i> 7.0, 7.5, 8.0, and 8.5 triggered by one of the two faults. The quantitative earthquake disaster risk maps in the study area were developed by integrating the values of the at-risk elements for the earthquake factor, population, and landslide hazard. According to the model results, the high-hazard zone was mainly located in the severely affected areas along the faults and on the western side of the faults. These results can be useful for emergency preparation planning, response plans, and resource assessment.