Duration of Immunity to Norovirus Gastroenteritis
The duration of immunity to norovirus (NoV) gastroenteritis has been believed to be from 6 months to 2 years. However, several observations are inconsistent with this short period. To gain better estimates of the duration of immunity to NoV, we developed a mathematical model of community NoV transmi...
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Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
2013-08-01
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doaj-27bdf031745e4e899f361b7a20434b482020-11-25T01:58:50ZengCenters for Disease Control and PreventionEmerging Infectious Diseases1080-60401080-60592013-08-011981260126710.3201/eid1908.130472Duration of Immunity to Norovirus GastroenteritisKirsten SimmonsManoj GambhirJuan LeonBen LopmanThe duration of immunity to norovirus (NoV) gastroenteritis has been believed to be from 6 months to 2 years. However, several observations are inconsistent with this short period. To gain better estimates of the duration of immunity to NoV, we developed a mathematical model of community NoV transmission. The model was parameterized from the literature and also fit to age-specific incidence data from England and Wales by using maximum likelihood. We developed several scenarios to determine the effect of unknowns regarding transmission and immunity on estimates of the duration of immunity. In the various models, duration of immunity to NoV gastroenteritis was estimated at 4.1 (95% CI 3.2–5.1) to 8.7 (95% CI 6.8–11.3) years. Moreover, we calculated that children (<5 years) are much more infectious than older children and adults. If a vaccine can achieve protection for duration of natural immunity indicated by our results, its potential health and economic benefits could be substantial.https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/19/8/13-0472_articleNorovirusmodelingmathematical modelimmunityincidencevaccination |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Kirsten Simmons Manoj Gambhir Juan Leon Ben Lopman |
spellingShingle |
Kirsten Simmons Manoj Gambhir Juan Leon Ben Lopman Duration of Immunity to Norovirus Gastroenteritis Emerging Infectious Diseases Norovirus modeling mathematical model immunity incidence vaccination |
author_facet |
Kirsten Simmons Manoj Gambhir Juan Leon Ben Lopman |
author_sort |
Kirsten Simmons |
title |
Duration of Immunity to Norovirus Gastroenteritis |
title_short |
Duration of Immunity to Norovirus Gastroenteritis |
title_full |
Duration of Immunity to Norovirus Gastroenteritis |
title_fullStr |
Duration of Immunity to Norovirus Gastroenteritis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Duration of Immunity to Norovirus Gastroenteritis |
title_sort |
duration of immunity to norovirus gastroenteritis |
publisher |
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention |
series |
Emerging Infectious Diseases |
issn |
1080-6040 1080-6059 |
publishDate |
2013-08-01 |
description |
The duration of immunity to norovirus (NoV) gastroenteritis has been believed to be from 6 months to 2 years. However, several observations are inconsistent with this short period. To gain better estimates of the duration of immunity to NoV, we developed a mathematical model of community NoV transmission. The model was parameterized from the literature and also fit to age-specific incidence data from England and Wales by using maximum likelihood. We developed several scenarios to determine the effect of unknowns regarding transmission and immunity on estimates of the duration of immunity. In the various models, duration of immunity to NoV gastroenteritis was estimated at 4.1 (95% CI 3.2–5.1) to 8.7 (95% CI 6.8–11.3) years. Moreover, we calculated that children (<5 years) are much more infectious than older children and adults. If a vaccine can achieve protection for duration of natural immunity indicated by our results, its potential health and economic benefits could be substantial. |
topic |
Norovirus modeling mathematical model immunity incidence vaccination |
url |
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/19/8/13-0472_article |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT kirstensimmons durationofimmunitytonorovirusgastroenteritis AT manojgambhir durationofimmunitytonorovirusgastroenteritis AT juanleon durationofimmunitytonorovirusgastroenteritis AT benlopman durationofimmunitytonorovirusgastroenteritis |
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