Probability assessment of slope instability in seasonally cold regions under climate change
Abstract To semi-quantitatively assess the effects of climate change on the slope failures, this paper proposes an effective approach for evaluating the influences of climate change on slope stability in seasonally cold regions. To discuss climate change, this study firstly analyzes the trend of the...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s43065-021-00034-1 |
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doaj-27c5251c9a6249b29e4b435c212976a42021-07-18T11:28:47ZengSpringerOpenJournal of Infrastructure Preservation and Resilience2662-25212021-07-012111510.1186/s43065-021-00034-1Probability assessment of slope instability in seasonally cold regions under climate changeYulong Zhu0Tatsuya Ishikawa1Tomohito J. Yamada2Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian3School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, North China Electric Power UniversityLaboratory of Analytical Geomechanics, Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido UniversityRiver & Watershed Engineering Laboratory, Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido UniversityState Key Laboratory of Geo-hazard Prevention and Geo-environment Protection, Chengdu University of TechnologyAbstract To semi-quantitatively assess the effects of climate change on the slope failures, this paper proposes an effective approach for evaluating the influences of climate change on slope stability in seasonally cold regions. To discuss climate change, this study firstly analyzes the trend of the two main climate factors (precipitation and air temperature) based on the regression analysis results of the meteorological monitoring data during the past 120 years in different scales (e.g., world, country (Japan), and city (Sapporo)), and the downscaled outputs of three different regional atmospheric models (RAMs) with lateral boundary conditions from three different general circulation models (GCMs). Next, to discuss the effects of different climate factors (air temperature, precipitation, etc.) and to determine the key climate factors on the slope instability, a slope stability assessment approach for evaluating the effects of climate changes on slope instability is proposed through the water content simulation and slope stability analysis with considering freeze-thaw action. Finally, to check the effectiveness of the above assessment approach, assessment of instability of an actual highway embankment slope with the local layer geometry is done by applying the past and predicted future climate data. The results indicate that affected by global warming, the air temperature rise in some cold cities is more serious. The climate changes (especially the increase in precipitation) in the future will increase the infiltration during the Spring season. It will lengthen the time that the highway slope is in an unstable state due to high volumetric water content, causing the occurrence of slope failures will be more concentrated in April. While during the Ssummer-Autumn period, the time domain of its occurrence will become wider.https://doi.org/10.1186/s43065-021-00034-1Climate changeSlope instabilitySeasonally cold regionsProbability assessmentFreeze-thaw action |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Yulong Zhu Tatsuya Ishikawa Tomohito J. Yamada Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian |
spellingShingle |
Yulong Zhu Tatsuya Ishikawa Tomohito J. Yamada Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian Probability assessment of slope instability in seasonally cold regions under climate change Journal of Infrastructure Preservation and Resilience Climate change Slope instability Seasonally cold regions Probability assessment Freeze-thaw action |
author_facet |
Yulong Zhu Tatsuya Ishikawa Tomohito J. Yamada Srikrishnan Siva Subramanian |
author_sort |
Yulong Zhu |
title |
Probability assessment of slope instability in seasonally cold regions under climate change |
title_short |
Probability assessment of slope instability in seasonally cold regions under climate change |
title_full |
Probability assessment of slope instability in seasonally cold regions under climate change |
title_fullStr |
Probability assessment of slope instability in seasonally cold regions under climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Probability assessment of slope instability in seasonally cold regions under climate change |
title_sort |
probability assessment of slope instability in seasonally cold regions under climate change |
publisher |
SpringerOpen |
series |
Journal of Infrastructure Preservation and Resilience |
issn |
2662-2521 |
publishDate |
2021-07-01 |
description |
Abstract To semi-quantitatively assess the effects of climate change on the slope failures, this paper proposes an effective approach for evaluating the influences of climate change on slope stability in seasonally cold regions. To discuss climate change, this study firstly analyzes the trend of the two main climate factors (precipitation and air temperature) based on the regression analysis results of the meteorological monitoring data during the past 120 years in different scales (e.g., world, country (Japan), and city (Sapporo)), and the downscaled outputs of three different regional atmospheric models (RAMs) with lateral boundary conditions from three different general circulation models (GCMs). Next, to discuss the effects of different climate factors (air temperature, precipitation, etc.) and to determine the key climate factors on the slope instability, a slope stability assessment approach for evaluating the effects of climate changes on slope instability is proposed through the water content simulation and slope stability analysis with considering freeze-thaw action. Finally, to check the effectiveness of the above assessment approach, assessment of instability of an actual highway embankment slope with the local layer geometry is done by applying the past and predicted future climate data. The results indicate that affected by global warming, the air temperature rise in some cold cities is more serious. The climate changes (especially the increase in precipitation) in the future will increase the infiltration during the Spring season. It will lengthen the time that the highway slope is in an unstable state due to high volumetric water content, causing the occurrence of slope failures will be more concentrated in April. While during the Ssummer-Autumn period, the time domain of its occurrence will become wider. |
topic |
Climate change Slope instability Seasonally cold regions Probability assessment Freeze-thaw action |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s43065-021-00034-1 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT yulongzhu probabilityassessmentofslopeinstabilityinseasonallycoldregionsunderclimatechange AT tatsuyaishikawa probabilityassessmentofslopeinstabilityinseasonallycoldregionsunderclimatechange AT tomohitojyamada probabilityassessmentofslopeinstabilityinseasonallycoldregionsunderclimatechange AT srikrishnansivasubramanian probabilityassessmentofslopeinstabilityinseasonallycoldregionsunderclimatechange |
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1721296093289906176 |