Short-term Probabilistic Load Forecasting with the Consideration of Human Body Amenity

Load forecasting is the basis of power system planning and design. It is important for the economic operation and reliability assurance of power system. However, the results of load forecasting given by most existing methods are deterministic. This study aims at probabilistic load forecasting. First...

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Main Author:	Ning Lu
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	IFSA Publishing, S.L. 2013-02-01
Series:	Sensors & Transducers
Subjects:	Human body amenity Support vector machine Short-term load forecasting Confidence level Probabilistic forecasting
Online Access:	http://www.sensorsportal.com/HTML/DIGEST/february_2013/P_SI_312.pdf

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spelling	doaj-2857e56d1883484389fa846b69a1453d2020-11-25T00:32:46ZengIFSA Publishing, S.L.Sensors & Transducers2306-85151726-54792013-02-0119Special Issue3944Short-term Probabilistic Load Forecasting with the Consideration of Human Body AmenityNing Lu0School of Automation, Wuhan University of Technology, 430070, ChinaLoad forecasting is the basis of power system planning and design. It is important for the economic operation and reliability assurance of power system. However, the results of load forecasting given by most existing methods are deterministic. This study aims at probabilistic load forecasting. First, the support vector machine regression is used to acquire the deterministic results of load forecasting with the consideration of human body amenity. Then the probabilistic load forecasting at a certain confidence level is given after the analysis of error distribution law corresponding to certain heat index interval. The final simulation shows that this probabilistic forecasting method is easy to implement and can provide more information than the deterministic forecasting results, and thus is helpful for decision-makers to make reasonable decisions. http://www.sensorsportal.com/HTML/DIGEST/february_2013/P_SI_312.pdfHuman body amenitySupport vector machineShort-term load forecastingConfidence levelProbabilistic forecasting
collection	DOAJ
language	English
format	Article
sources	DOAJ
author	Ning Lu
spellingShingle	Ning Lu Short-term Probabilistic Load Forecasting with the Consideration of Human Body Amenity Sensors & Transducers Human body amenity Support vector machine Short-term load forecasting Confidence level Probabilistic forecasting
author_facet	Ning Lu
author_sort	Ning Lu
title	Short-term Probabilistic Load Forecasting with the Consideration of Human Body Amenity
title_short	Short-term Probabilistic Load Forecasting with the Consideration of Human Body Amenity
title_full	Short-term Probabilistic Load Forecasting with the Consideration of Human Body Amenity
title_fullStr	Short-term Probabilistic Load Forecasting with the Consideration of Human Body Amenity
title_full_unstemmed	Short-term Probabilistic Load Forecasting with the Consideration of Human Body Amenity
title_sort	short-term probabilistic load forecasting with the consideration of human body amenity
publisher	IFSA Publishing, S.L.
series	Sensors & Transducers
issn	2306-8515 1726-5479
publishDate	2013-02-01
description	Load forecasting is the basis of power system planning and design. It is important for the economic operation and reliability assurance of power system. However, the results of load forecasting given by most existing methods are deterministic. This study aims at probabilistic load forecasting. First, the support vector machine regression is used to acquire the deterministic results of load forecasting with the consideration of human body amenity. Then the probabilistic load forecasting at a certain confidence level is given after the analysis of error distribution law corresponding to certain heat index interval. The final simulation shows that this probabilistic forecasting method is easy to implement and can provide more information than the deterministic forecasting results, and thus is helpful for decision-makers to make reasonable decisions.
topic	Human body amenity Support vector machine Short-term load forecasting Confidence level Probabilistic forecasting
url	http://www.sensorsportal.com/HTML/DIGEST/february_2013/P_SI_312.pdf
work_keys_str_mv	AT ninglu shorttermprobabilisticloadforecastingwiththeconsiderationofhumanbodyamenity
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Short-term Probabilistic Load Forecasting with the Consideration of Human Body Amenity

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