Why Did People Move During the Great Recession? The Role of Economics in Migration Decisions
Labor migration offers an important mechanism to reallocate workers when there are regional differences in employment conditions. Whereas conventional wisdom suggests migration rates should increase during recessions as workers move out of areas that are hit hardest, initial evidence suggested that...
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Online Access: | http://www.rsfjournal.org/doi/full/10.7758/RSF.2017.3.3.05 |
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doaj-29d093d2be934bae8ac226d3365525332020-11-24T22:48:12ZengRussell Sage FoundationRSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences2377-82532377-82612017-04-013310012510.7758/RSF.2017.3.3.05Why Did People Move During the Great Recession? The Role of Economics in Migration DecisionsBrian L. Levy0Ted Mouw1Anthony Daniel Perez2University of North Carolina at Chapel HillUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel HillUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel HillLabor migration offers an important mechanism to reallocate workers when there are regional differences in employment conditions. Whereas conventional wisdom suggests migration rates should increase during recessions as workers move out of areas that are hit hardest, initial evidence suggested that overall migration rates declined during the Great Recession, despite large regional differences in unemployment and growth rates. In this paper we use data from the American Community Survey to analyze internal migration trends before and during the economic downturn. First, we find only a modest decline in the odds of adults leaving distressed labor market areas during the Great Recession, which may result in part from challenges related to the housing price crash. Second, we estimate conditional logit models of destination choice for individuals who migrate across labor market areas; we find a substantial effect of economic factors such as labor demand, unemployment, and housing values. We also estimate latent class conditional logit models that test whether there is heterogeneity in preferences for destination characteristics among migrants. Over all, the latent class models suggest that roughly equal percentages of migrants were motivated by economic factors before and during the Great Recession. We conclude that fears of dramatic declines in labor migration seem to be unsubstantiated.http://www.rsfjournal.org/doi/full/10.7758/RSF.2017.3.3.05migrationGreat Recessionlatent class conditional logits |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Brian L. Levy Ted Mouw Anthony Daniel Perez |
spellingShingle |
Brian L. Levy Ted Mouw Anthony Daniel Perez Why Did People Move During the Great Recession? The Role of Economics in Migration Decisions RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences migration Great Recession latent class conditional logits |
author_facet |
Brian L. Levy Ted Mouw Anthony Daniel Perez |
author_sort |
Brian L. Levy |
title |
Why Did People Move During the Great Recession? The Role of Economics in Migration Decisions |
title_short |
Why Did People Move During the Great Recession? The Role of Economics in Migration Decisions |
title_full |
Why Did People Move During the Great Recession? The Role of Economics in Migration Decisions |
title_fullStr |
Why Did People Move During the Great Recession? The Role of Economics in Migration Decisions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Why Did People Move During the Great Recession? The Role of Economics in Migration Decisions |
title_sort |
why did people move during the great recession? the role of economics in migration decisions |
publisher |
Russell Sage Foundation |
series |
RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences |
issn |
2377-8253 2377-8261 |
publishDate |
2017-04-01 |
description |
Labor migration offers an important mechanism to reallocate workers when there are regional differences in employment conditions. Whereas conventional wisdom suggests migration rates should increase during recessions as workers move out of areas that are hit hardest, initial evidence suggested that overall migration rates declined during the Great Recession, despite large regional differences in unemployment and growth rates. In this paper we use data from the American Community Survey to analyze internal migration trends before and during the economic downturn. First, we find only a modest decline in the odds of adults leaving distressed labor market areas during the Great Recession, which may result in part from challenges related to the housing price crash. Second, we estimate conditional logit models of destination choice for individuals who migrate across labor market areas; we find a substantial effect of economic factors such as labor demand, unemployment, and housing values. We also estimate latent class conditional logit models that test whether there is heterogeneity in preferences for destination characteristics among migrants. Over all, the latent class models suggest that roughly equal percentages of migrants were motivated by economic factors before and during the Great Recession. We conclude that fears of dramatic declines in labor migration seem to be unsubstantiated. |
topic |
migration Great Recession latent class conditional logits |
url |
http://www.rsfjournal.org/doi/full/10.7758/RSF.2017.3.3.05 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT brianllevy whydidpeoplemoveduringthegreatrecessiontheroleofeconomicsinmigrationdecisions AT tedmouw whydidpeoplemoveduringthegreatrecessiontheroleofeconomicsinmigrationdecisions AT anthonydanielperez whydidpeoplemoveduringthegreatrecessiontheroleofeconomicsinmigrationdecisions |
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