| Summary: | Nonnative species pose a threat to native biodiversity and can have immense impacts on biological communities, altering the function of ecosystems. How much value is at risk from high-impact invasive species, and which parameters determine variation in that value, constitutes critical knowledge for directing both management and research, but it is rarely available. We evaluated the value of the commercial shellfish harvest that is at risk in nearshore ecosystems of Puget Sound, Washington State, USA, from the invasive European green crab, Carcinus maenas. We assessed this value using a simple static ecological model combined with an economic model using data from Puget Sound’s shellfish harvest and revenue and the relationship between C. maenas abundance and the consumption rate of shellfish. The model incorporates a range in C. maenas diet preference, calories consumed per year, and crab densities. C. maenas is likely to prey on commercially harvested hardshell clams, oysters, and mussels, which would likely reduce additional revenue from processing and distribution, and the number of jobs associated with these fisheries. The model results suggest possible revenue losses of these shellfish ranging from $1.03-23.8 million USD year-1 (2.8-64% losses), with additional processing and distribution losses up to $17.6 million USD and 442 job positions each year associated with a range of plausible parameter values. The broad range of values reflects the uncertainty in key factors underlying impacts, factors that are highly variable across invaded regions and so not knowable a priori. However, future research evaluating species invasions can reduce the uncertainty of impacts by characterizing several key parameters: density of individuals, number of arrivals, predation and competition interactions, and economic impacts. This study therefore provides direction for research to inform more accurate estimates of value-at-risk, and suggests substantial motivation for strong measures to prevent, monitor, and manage the possible invasion of C. maenas.
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