Kalman filter model, as a tool for short-term forecasting of solar potential: case of the Dakar site
The prediction of solar potential is an important step toward the evaluation of PV plant production for the best energy planning. In this study, the discrete Kalman filter model was implemented for short-term solar resource forecasting one the Dakar site in Senegal. The model input parameters are co...
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doaj-2aa501d18a974cf2bc1aa810e15d0c612021-02-02T03:15:34ZengEDP SciencesE3S Web of Conferences2267-12422018-01-01570100410.1051/e3sconf/20185701004e3sconf_icsree2018_01004Kalman filter model, as a tool for short-term forecasting of solar potential: case of the Dakar siteMbaye A.0Ndong J.1NDiaye M.L.2Sylla M.3Aidara M.C.4Diaw M.NDiaye M.F.5Ndiaye Papa Alioune6Ndiaye A.7Electrical Engineering Department of the Polytechnic High School of Dakar Senegal, Laboratory International Center for Solar EnergyDepartment of Mathematics and Computer Science, University Cheikh Anta Diop of Dakar Senegal, Laboratory LID.Electrical Engineering Department of the Polytechnic High School of Dakar Senegal, Laboratory International Center for Solar EnergyElectrical Engineering Department of the Polytechnic High School of Dakar Senegal, Laboratory International Center for Solar EnergyElectrical Engineering Department of the Polytechnic High School of Dakar Senegal, Laboratory International Center for Solar EnergyElectrical Engineering Department of the Polytechnic High School of Dakar Senegal, Laboratory International Center for Solar EnergyElectrical Engineering Department of the Polytechnic High School of Dakar Senegal, Laboratory International Center for Solar EnergyElectrical Engineering Department of the Polytechnic High School of Dakar Senegal, Laboratory International Center for Solar EnergyThe prediction of solar potential is an important step toward the evaluation of PV plant production for the best energy planning. In this study, the discrete Kalman filter model was implemented for short-term solar resource forecasting one the Dakar site in Senegal. The model input parameters are constituted at a time t of the air temperature, the relative humidity and the global solar radiation. The expected output at time t+T is the global solar radiation. The model performance is evaluated with the square root of the normalized mean squared error (NRMSE), the absolute mean of the normalized error (NMAE), the average bias error (NMBE). The model Validation is carried out by means of the data measured within the Polytechnic Higher School of Dakar for one year. The simulation results following the 20 minute horizon show a good correlation between the prediction and the measurement with an NRMSE of 4.8%, an NMAE of 0.27% and an NMBE of 0.04%. This model could contribute to help photovoltaic based energy providers to better plan the production of solar photovoltaic plants in Sahelian environments.https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20185701004Kalman filtersolar potentialPredictionDakarshort-term |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Mbaye A. Ndong J. NDiaye M.L. Sylla M. Aidara M.C. Diaw M. NDiaye M.F. Ndiaye Papa Alioune Ndiaye A. |
spellingShingle |
Mbaye A. Ndong J. NDiaye M.L. Sylla M. Aidara M.C. Diaw M. NDiaye M.F. Ndiaye Papa Alioune Ndiaye A. Kalman filter model, as a tool for short-term forecasting of solar potential: case of the Dakar site E3S Web of Conferences Kalman filter solar potential Prediction Dakar short-term |
author_facet |
Mbaye A. Ndong J. NDiaye M.L. Sylla M. Aidara M.C. Diaw M. NDiaye M.F. Ndiaye Papa Alioune Ndiaye A. |
author_sort |
Mbaye A. |
title |
Kalman filter model, as a tool for short-term forecasting of solar potential: case of the Dakar site |
title_short |
Kalman filter model, as a tool for short-term forecasting of solar potential: case of the Dakar site |
title_full |
Kalman filter model, as a tool for short-term forecasting of solar potential: case of the Dakar site |
title_fullStr |
Kalman filter model, as a tool for short-term forecasting of solar potential: case of the Dakar site |
title_full_unstemmed |
Kalman filter model, as a tool for short-term forecasting of solar potential: case of the Dakar site |
title_sort |
kalman filter model, as a tool for short-term forecasting of solar potential: case of the dakar site |
publisher |
EDP Sciences |
series |
E3S Web of Conferences |
issn |
2267-1242 |
publishDate |
2018-01-01 |
description |
The prediction of solar potential is an important step toward the evaluation of PV plant production for the best energy planning. In this study, the discrete Kalman filter model was implemented for short-term solar resource forecasting one the Dakar site in Senegal. The model input parameters are constituted at a time t of the air temperature, the relative humidity and the global solar radiation. The expected output at time t+T is the global solar radiation. The model performance is evaluated with the square root of the normalized mean squared error (NRMSE), the absolute mean of the normalized error (NMAE), the average bias error (NMBE). The model Validation is carried out by means of the data measured within the Polytechnic Higher School of Dakar for one year. The simulation results following the 20 minute horizon show a good correlation between the prediction and the measurement with an NRMSE of 4.8%, an NMAE of 0.27% and an NMBE of 0.04%. This model could contribute to help photovoltaic based energy providers to better plan the production of solar photovoltaic plants in Sahelian environments. |
topic |
Kalman filter solar potential Prediction Dakar short-term |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20185701004 |
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