Maintaining proper health records improves machine learning predictions for novel 2019-nCoV
Abstract Background An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia continues to affect the whole world including major countries such as China, USA, Italy, France and the United Kingdom. We present outcome (‘recovered’, ‘isolated’ or ‘death’) risk estimates of 2019-nCoV over ‘early...
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doaj-2c6b742a098a46b79bbb6eea7291316f2021-05-30T11:44:11ZengBMCBMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making1472-69472021-05-0121111310.1186/s12911-021-01537-3Maintaining proper health records improves machine learning predictions for novel 2019-nCoVKoffka Khan0Emilie Ramsahai1Department of Computing and Information Technology, The University of the West IndiesUWI School of Business & Applied Studies Ltd (UWI-ROYTEC)Abstract Background An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia continues to affect the whole world including major countries such as China, USA, Italy, France and the United Kingdom. We present outcome (‘recovered’, ‘isolated’ or ‘death’) risk estimates of 2019-nCoV over ‘early’ datasets. A major consideration is the likelihood of death for patients with 2019-nCoV. Method Accounting for the impact of the variations in the reporting rate of 2019-nCoV, we used machine learning techniques (AdaBoost, bagging, extra-trees, decision trees and k-nearest neighbour classifiers) on two 2019-nCoV datasets obtained from Kaggle on March 30, 2020. We used ‘country’, ‘age’ and ‘gender’ as features to predict outcome for both datasets. We included the patient’s ‘disease’ history (only present in the second dataset) to predict the outcome for the second dataset. Results The use of a patient’s ‘disease’ history improves the prediction of ‘death’ by more than sevenfold. The models ignoring a patent’s ‘disease’ history performed poorly in test predictions. Conclusion Our findings indicate the potential of using a patient’s ‘disease’ history as part of the feature set in machine learning techniques to improve 2019-nCoV predictions. This development can have a positive effect on predictive patient treatment and can result in easing currently overburdened healthcare systems worldwide, especially with the increasing prevalence of second and third wave re-infections in some countries.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12911-021-01537-32019-nCoVPneumoniaMachine learningAdaBoostBaggingClassifiers |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Koffka Khan Emilie Ramsahai |
spellingShingle |
Koffka Khan Emilie Ramsahai Maintaining proper health records improves machine learning predictions for novel 2019-nCoV BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making 2019-nCoV Pneumonia Machine learning AdaBoost Bagging Classifiers |
author_facet |
Koffka Khan Emilie Ramsahai |
author_sort |
Koffka Khan |
title |
Maintaining proper health records improves machine learning predictions for novel 2019-nCoV |
title_short |
Maintaining proper health records improves machine learning predictions for novel 2019-nCoV |
title_full |
Maintaining proper health records improves machine learning predictions for novel 2019-nCoV |
title_fullStr |
Maintaining proper health records improves machine learning predictions for novel 2019-nCoV |
title_full_unstemmed |
Maintaining proper health records improves machine learning predictions for novel 2019-nCoV |
title_sort |
maintaining proper health records improves machine learning predictions for novel 2019-ncov |
publisher |
BMC |
series |
BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making |
issn |
1472-6947 |
publishDate |
2021-05-01 |
description |
Abstract Background An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia continues to affect the whole world including major countries such as China, USA, Italy, France and the United Kingdom. We present outcome (‘recovered’, ‘isolated’ or ‘death’) risk estimates of 2019-nCoV over ‘early’ datasets. A major consideration is the likelihood of death for patients with 2019-nCoV. Method Accounting for the impact of the variations in the reporting rate of 2019-nCoV, we used machine learning techniques (AdaBoost, bagging, extra-trees, decision trees and k-nearest neighbour classifiers) on two 2019-nCoV datasets obtained from Kaggle on March 30, 2020. We used ‘country’, ‘age’ and ‘gender’ as features to predict outcome for both datasets. We included the patient’s ‘disease’ history (only present in the second dataset) to predict the outcome for the second dataset. Results The use of a patient’s ‘disease’ history improves the prediction of ‘death’ by more than sevenfold. The models ignoring a patent’s ‘disease’ history performed poorly in test predictions. Conclusion Our findings indicate the potential of using a patient’s ‘disease’ history as part of the feature set in machine learning techniques to improve 2019-nCoV predictions. This development can have a positive effect on predictive patient treatment and can result in easing currently overburdened healthcare systems worldwide, especially with the increasing prevalence of second and third wave re-infections in some countries. |
topic |
2019-nCoV Pneumonia Machine learning AdaBoost Bagging Classifiers |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12911-021-01537-3 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT koffkakhan maintainingproperhealthrecordsimprovesmachinelearningpredictionsfornovel2019ncov AT emilieramsahai maintainingproperhealthrecordsimprovesmachinelearningpredictionsfornovel2019ncov |
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1721420015630024704 |