The statistics of epidemic transitions.
Emerging and re-emerging pathogens exhibit very complex dynamics, are hard to model and difficult to predict. Their dynamics might appear intractable. However, new statistical approaches-rooted in dynamical systems and the theory of stochastic processes-have yielded insight into the dynamics of emer...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006917 |
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doaj-2d17efa8702f43f0ac23f7bb8d81b2492021-04-21T15:16:27ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Computational Biology1553-734X1553-73582019-05-01155e100691710.1371/journal.pcbi.1006917The statistics of epidemic transitions.John M DrakeTobias S BrettShiyang ChenBogdan I EpureanuMatthew J FerrariÉric MartyPaige B MillerEamon B O'DeaSuzanne M O'ReganAndrew W ParkPejman RohaniEmerging and re-emerging pathogens exhibit very complex dynamics, are hard to model and difficult to predict. Their dynamics might appear intractable. However, new statistical approaches-rooted in dynamical systems and the theory of stochastic processes-have yielded insight into the dynamics of emerging and re-emerging pathogens. We argue that these approaches may lead to new methods for predicting epidemics. This perspective views pathogen emergence and re-emergence as a "critical transition," and uses the concept of noisy dynamic bifurcation to understand the relationship between the system observables and the distance to this transition. Because the system dynamics exhibit characteristic fluctuations in response to perturbations for a system in the vicinity of a critical point, we propose this information may be harnessed to develop early warning signals. Specifically, the motion of perturbations slows as the system approaches the transition.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006917 |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
John M Drake Tobias S Brett Shiyang Chen Bogdan I Epureanu Matthew J Ferrari Éric Marty Paige B Miller Eamon B O'Dea Suzanne M O'Regan Andrew W Park Pejman Rohani |
spellingShingle |
John M Drake Tobias S Brett Shiyang Chen Bogdan I Epureanu Matthew J Ferrari Éric Marty Paige B Miller Eamon B O'Dea Suzanne M O'Regan Andrew W Park Pejman Rohani The statistics of epidemic transitions. PLoS Computational Biology |
author_facet |
John M Drake Tobias S Brett Shiyang Chen Bogdan I Epureanu Matthew J Ferrari Éric Marty Paige B Miller Eamon B O'Dea Suzanne M O'Regan Andrew W Park Pejman Rohani |
author_sort |
John M Drake |
title |
The statistics of epidemic transitions. |
title_short |
The statistics of epidemic transitions. |
title_full |
The statistics of epidemic transitions. |
title_fullStr |
The statistics of epidemic transitions. |
title_full_unstemmed |
The statistics of epidemic transitions. |
title_sort |
statistics of epidemic transitions. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
series |
PLoS Computational Biology |
issn |
1553-734X 1553-7358 |
publishDate |
2019-05-01 |
description |
Emerging and re-emerging pathogens exhibit very complex dynamics, are hard to model and difficult to predict. Their dynamics might appear intractable. However, new statistical approaches-rooted in dynamical systems and the theory of stochastic processes-have yielded insight into the dynamics of emerging and re-emerging pathogens. We argue that these approaches may lead to new methods for predicting epidemics. This perspective views pathogen emergence and re-emergence as a "critical transition," and uses the concept of noisy dynamic bifurcation to understand the relationship between the system observables and the distance to this transition. Because the system dynamics exhibit characteristic fluctuations in response to perturbations for a system in the vicinity of a critical point, we propose this information may be harnessed to develop early warning signals. Specifically, the motion of perturbations slows as the system approaches the transition. |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006917 |
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