ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century
<p>Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance...
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Copernicus Publications
2020-09-01
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| Series: | The Cryosphere |
| Online Access: | https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3033/2020/tc-14-3033-2020.pdf |
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doaj-2e30e29db70c4a43b7f755af333da47b |
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Article |
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DOAJ |
| language |
English |
| format |
Article |
| sources |
DOAJ |
| author |
H. Seroussi S. Nowicki A. J. Payne H. Goelzer H. Goelzer W. H. Lipscomb A. Abe-Ouchi C. Agosta T. Albrecht X. Asay-Davis A. Barthel R. Calov R. Cullather C. Dumas B. K. Galton-Fenzi R. Gladstone N. R. Golledge J. M. Gregory J. M. Gregory R. Greve R. Greve T. Hattermann T. Hattermann M. J. Hoffman A. Humbert A. Humbert P. Huybrechts N. C. Jourdain T. Kleiner E. Larour G. R. Leguy D. P. Lowry C. M. Little M. Morlighem F. Pattyn T. Pelle S. F. Price A. Quiquet R. Reese N.-J. Schlegel A. Shepherd E. Simon R. S. Smith F. Straneo S. Sun L. D. Trusel J. Van Breedam R. S. W. van de Wal R. S. W. van de Wal R. Winkelmann R. Winkelmann C. Zhao T. Zhang T. Zwinger |
| spellingShingle |
H. Seroussi S. Nowicki A. J. Payne H. Goelzer H. Goelzer W. H. Lipscomb A. Abe-Ouchi C. Agosta T. Albrecht X. Asay-Davis A. Barthel R. Calov R. Cullather C. Dumas B. K. Galton-Fenzi R. Gladstone N. R. Golledge J. M. Gregory J. M. Gregory R. Greve R. Greve T. Hattermann T. Hattermann M. J. Hoffman A. Humbert A. Humbert P. Huybrechts N. C. Jourdain T. Kleiner E. Larour G. R. Leguy D. P. Lowry C. M. Little M. Morlighem F. Pattyn T. Pelle S. F. Price A. Quiquet R. Reese N.-J. Schlegel A. Shepherd E. Simon R. S. Smith F. Straneo S. Sun L. D. Trusel J. Van Breedam R. S. W. van de Wal R. S. W. van de Wal R. Winkelmann R. Winkelmann C. Zhao T. Zhang T. Zwinger ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century The Cryosphere |
| author_facet |
H. Seroussi S. Nowicki A. J. Payne H. Goelzer H. Goelzer W. H. Lipscomb A. Abe-Ouchi C. Agosta T. Albrecht X. Asay-Davis A. Barthel R. Calov R. Cullather C. Dumas B. K. Galton-Fenzi R. Gladstone N. R. Golledge J. M. Gregory J. M. Gregory R. Greve R. Greve T. Hattermann T. Hattermann M. J. Hoffman A. Humbert A. Humbert P. Huybrechts N. C. Jourdain T. Kleiner E. Larour G. R. Leguy D. P. Lowry C. M. Little M. Morlighem F. Pattyn T. Pelle S. F. Price A. Quiquet R. Reese N.-J. Schlegel A. Shepherd E. Simon R. S. Smith F. Straneo S. Sun L. D. Trusel J. Van Breedam R. S. W. van de Wal R. S. W. van de Wal R. Winkelmann R. Winkelmann C. Zhao T. Zhang T. Zwinger |
| author_sort |
H. Seroussi |
| title |
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
| title_short |
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
| title_full |
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
| title_fullStr |
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
| title_full_unstemmed |
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
| title_sort |
ismip6 antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century |
| publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
| series |
The Cryosphere |
| issn |
1994-0416 1994-0424 |
| publishDate |
2020-09-01 |
| description |
<p>Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in
response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to
future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass
balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical
processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents
results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution
of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model
Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate
model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response
to increased warming during this period varies between <span class="inline-formula">−7.8</span> and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent
(SLE) under Representative Concentration
Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with
constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under
climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the
West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between <span class="inline-formula">−6.1</span> and
8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing
the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf
collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of
ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice
shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the
calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities
and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based
on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to
simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display
limited mass gain in East Antarctica.</p> |
| url |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3033/2020/tc-14-3033-2020.pdf |
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doaj-2e30e29db70c4a43b7f755af333da47b2020-11-25T03:37:38ZengCopernicus PublicationsThe Cryosphere1994-04161994-04242020-09-01143033307010.5194/tc-14-3033-2020ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st centuryH. Seroussi0S. Nowicki1A. J. Payne2H. Goelzer3H. Goelzer4W. H. Lipscomb5A. Abe-Ouchi6C. Agosta7T. Albrecht8X. Asay-Davis9A. Barthel10R. Calov11R. Cullather12C. Dumas13B. K. Galton-Fenzi14R. Gladstone15N. R. Golledge16J. M. Gregory17J. M. Gregory18R. Greve19R. Greve20T. Hattermann21T. Hattermann22M. J. Hoffman23A. Humbert24A. Humbert25P. Huybrechts26N. C. Jourdain27T. Kleiner28E. Larour29G. R. Leguy30D. P. Lowry31C. M. Little32M. Morlighem33F. Pattyn34T. Pelle35S. F. Price36A. Quiquet37R. Reese38N.-J. Schlegel39A. Shepherd40E. Simon41R. S. Smith42F. Straneo43S. Sun44L. D. Trusel45J. Van Breedam46R. S. W. van de Wal47R. S. W. van de Wal48R. Winkelmann49R. Winkelmann50C. Zhao51T. Zhang52T. Zwinger53Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USANASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USAUniversity of Bristol, Bristol, UKInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the NetherlandsLaboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, BelgiumClimate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USAUniversity of Tokyo, Tokyo, JapanLaboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, FrancePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, GermanyTheoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,, NM, USATheoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,, NM, USAPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, GermanyNASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USALaboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceAustralian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, AustraliaArctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, FinlandAntarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New ZealandNational Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UKMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKInstitute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, JapanArctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, JapanNorwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø, NorwayEnergy and Climate Group, Department of Physics and Technology, The Arctic University – University of Tromsø, Tromsø, NorwayTheoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,, NM, USAAlfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, 27570 Bremerhaven, GermanyDepartment of Geoscience, University of Bremen, Klagenfurter Straße 2-4, 28334 Bremen, GermanyEarth System Science and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, BelgiumUniv. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, Grenoble, FranceAlfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, 27570 Bremerhaven, GermanyJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USAClimate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USAGNS Science, Lower Hutt, New ZealandAtmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, MA, USADepartment of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, USALaboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, BelgiumDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, USATheoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,, NM, USALaboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, FrancePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, GermanyJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USACentre for Polar Observation and Modelling, University of Leeds, Leeds, UKNASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USANational Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UKScripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USALaboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, BelgiumDepartment of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USAEarth System Science and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, BelgiumInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the NetherlandsGeosciences, Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the NetherlandsPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, GermanyUniversity of Potsdam, Institute of Physics and Astronomy, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24–25, 14476 Potsdam, GermanyInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, AustraliaTheoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,, NM, USACSC-IT Center for Science, Espoo, Finland<p>Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between <span class="inline-formula">−7.8</span> and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between <span class="inline-formula">−6.1</span> and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.</p>https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3033/2020/tc-14-3033-2020.pdf |