Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model

Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model

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Grey theory is about systematic analysis of limited information. The Grey-Markov model can improve the accuracy of forecast range in the random fluctuating data sequence. In this paper, we employed this model in energy system. The average errors of Energy Information Administrations predictions for...

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Main Authors: Gholam Hossein Hasantash, Hamidreza Mostafaei, Shaghayegh Kordnoori
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: EconJournals 2012-01-01
Series:International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues
Subjects:
Grey theory
Grey Markov model
EIA
Oil
Online Access:http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/212/pdf
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spelling doaj-2eb06c61f6084f95af9e3b5ea0257e4b2020-11-24T22:47:51ZengEconJournalsInternational Journal of Economics and Financial Issues2146-41382012-01-0123312319Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov ModelGholam Hossein HasantashHamidreza MostafaeiShaghayegh KordnooriGrey theory is about systematic analysis of limited information. The Grey-Markov model can improve the accuracy of forecast range in the random fluctuating data sequence. In this paper, we employed this model in energy system. The average errors of Energy Information Administrations predictions for world oil price and domestic crude oil production from 1982 to 2007 and from 1985 to 2008 respectively were used as two forecasted examples. We showed that the proposed Grey-Markov model can improve the forecast accuracy of original Grey forecast model.http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/212/pdfGrey theoryGrey Markov modelEIAOil
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Gholam Hossein Hasantash
Hamidreza Mostafaei
Shaghayegh Kordnoori
spellingShingle Gholam Hossein Hasantash
Hamidreza Mostafaei
Shaghayegh Kordnoori
Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model
International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues
Grey theory
Grey Markov model
EIA
Oil
author_facet Gholam Hossein Hasantash
Hamidreza Mostafaei
Shaghayegh Kordnoori
author_sort Gholam Hossein Hasantash
title Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model
title_short Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model
title_full Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model
title_fullStr Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model
title_full_unstemmed Modelling the Errors of EIA’s Oil Prices and Production Forecasts by the Grey Markov Model
title_sort modelling the errors of eia’s oil prices and production forecasts by the grey markov model
publisher EconJournals
series International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues
issn 2146-4138
publishDate 2012-01-01
description Grey theory is about systematic analysis of limited information. The Grey-Markov model can improve the accuracy of forecast range in the random fluctuating data sequence. In this paper, we employed this model in energy system. The average errors of Energy Information Administrations predictions for world oil price and domestic crude oil production from 1982 to 2007 and from 1985 to 2008 respectively were used as two forecasted examples. We showed that the proposed Grey-Markov model can improve the forecast accuracy of original Grey forecast model.
topic Grey theory
Grey Markov model
EIA
Oil
url http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/212/pdf
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AT hamidrezamostafaei modellingtheerrorsofeiasoilpricesandproductionforecastsbythegreymarkovmodel
AT shaghayeghkordnoori modellingtheerrorsofeiasoilpricesandproductionforecastsbythegreymarkovmodel
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