Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?
Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing 'goal' and 'time' factor...
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2018-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5922534?pdf=render |
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doaj-2ec7c637e1734492b49ff3c201fdf5612020-11-24T21:46:47ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032018-01-01134e019606010.1371/journal.pone.0196060Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?Wei PanYi-Shin ChenConventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing 'goal' and 'time' factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5922534?pdf=render |
| collection |
DOAJ |
| language |
English |
| format |
Article |
| sources |
DOAJ |
| author |
Wei Pan Yi-Shin Chen |
| spellingShingle |
Wei Pan Yi-Shin Chen Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value? PLoS ONE |
| author_facet |
Wei Pan Yi-Shin Chen |
| author_sort |
Wei Pan |
| title |
Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value? |
| title_short |
Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value? |
| title_full |
Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value? |
| title_fullStr |
Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value? |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value? |
| title_sort |
network approach for decision making under risk-how do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value? |
| publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| series |
PLoS ONE |
| issn |
1932-6203 |
| publishDate |
2018-01-01 |
| description |
Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing 'goal' and 'time' factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight. |
| url |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5922534?pdf=render |
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AT weipan networkapproachfordecisionmakingunderriskhowdowechooseamongprobabilisticoptionswiththesameexpectedvalue AT yishinchen networkapproachfordecisionmakingunderriskhowdowechooseamongprobabilisticoptionswiththesameexpectedvalue |
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