Impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine uptake on childhood pneumonia mortality across income levels in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru [version 1; peer review: 1 approved, 2 approved with reservations]

• Main Authors: Kayoko Shioda, Cristiana M. Toscano, Maria Tereza Valenzuela, William Valdez Huarcaya, Joshua L. Warren, Daniel M. Weinberger, Lucia H. de Oliveira
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: F1000 Research Ltd 2020-09-01
• Series: Gates Open Research
• Online Access: https://gatesopenresearch.org/articles/4-136/v1

Background: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have prevented deaths due to pneumonia among children. The effect may differ between higher- and lower-income populations due to various factors, such as differences in the distribution of pneumococcal serotypes, healthcare access, and PCV uptake. This study aims to evaluate an association between increasing PCV coverage and population-level declines in death due to pneumonia and its variation by socioeconomic status of subnational regions. Methods: We analyzed municipality-level mortality data from 2005 and 2015 for children aged 2-23 months in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. We fit Poisson regression models to estimate the relationship between changes in PCV uptake and deaths due to all-cause pneumonia among subnational regions with different income levels. We controlled for changes unrelated to PCV by using data on non-respiratory deaths over time. Results: Uptake of the third dose of PCV varied across subnational regions and was higher in high-income regions. Higher uptake of PCV was associated with larger declines in pneumonia mortality. This association did not differ by income level of the region in Brazil and Colombia. In Peru, low-income regions observed larger declines in pneumonia deaths, but there was large uncertainty in the difference between the low- and high-income regions. We estimated that, with 90% coverage, there would be 4-38% declines in all-cause pneumonia mortality across income levels and countries. Conclusions: Regions with higher PCV coverage experienced larger declines in pneumonia deaths, regardless of the income level. Having more reliable data on mortality records and vaccine uptake would improve the reliability of vaccine impact estimates.