Hydrological simulation of extreme flood scenarios for operational flood management at the Middle Elbe river
Operational flood management at the Middle Elbe river requires comprehensive knowledge about the magnitude and characteristics of possible extreme flood events. Since these events are not sufficiently included in available historical records, an extended sample of extreme flood events was generated...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2012-12-01
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| Series: | Advances in Geosciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.adv-geosci.net/32/41/2012/adgeo-32-41-2012.pdf |
| Summary: | Operational flood management at the Middle Elbe river requires comprehensive
knowledge about the magnitude and characteristics of possible extreme flood
events. Since these events are not sufficiently included in available
historical records, an extended sample of extreme flood events was generated
by hydrological scenario simulation. Present paper emphasises simulations in
the German part of the catchment of the Middle Elbe river and introduces the
stochastic-conceptual precipitation-runoff model which was developed for
this task. After validation of this model and its coupling with the weather
forecast model COSMO and hydraulic-numerical models, a set of 25 flood
scenarios could be simulated and provided for a planning of flood protection
measures. Analysis of simulated scenarios reveal that extreme flood events
at the Mulde and Middle Elbe rivers may have a wide spectrum of
characteristics and may considerably exceed the magnitude of past flood
events (e.g., those of August 2002). |
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| ISSN: | 1680-7340 1680-7359 |