Accuracy for Mortality Prediction With Additive Biomarkers Including Interleukin-6 in Critically Ill Patients: A Multicenter Prospective Observational Study
Objectives:. Several inflammation markers have been reported to be associated with unfavorable clinical outcomes in critically ill patients. We aimed to elucidate whether serum interleukin-6 concentration considered with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score can better predict mortality in criti...
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Format: | Article |
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Wolters Kluwer
2021-04-01
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Series: | Critical Care Explorations |
Online Access: | http://journals.lww.com/10.1097/CCE.0000000000000387 |
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DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Ryo Yamamoto, MD Junichi Sasaki, MD Takayuki Shibusawa, MD Taka-aki Nakada, MD Toshihiko Mayumi, MD Osamu Takasu, MD Kenichi Matsuda, MD Takashi Shimazui, MD Hiroki Otsubo, MD Yuto Teshima, MD Masakazu Nabeta, MD Takeshi Moriguchi, MD Shigeto Oda, MD |
spellingShingle |
Ryo Yamamoto, MD Junichi Sasaki, MD Takayuki Shibusawa, MD Taka-aki Nakada, MD Toshihiko Mayumi, MD Osamu Takasu, MD Kenichi Matsuda, MD Takashi Shimazui, MD Hiroki Otsubo, MD Yuto Teshima, MD Masakazu Nabeta, MD Takeshi Moriguchi, MD Shigeto Oda, MD Accuracy for Mortality Prediction With Additive Biomarkers Including Interleukin-6 in Critically Ill Patients: A Multicenter Prospective Observational Study Critical Care Explorations |
author_facet |
Ryo Yamamoto, MD Junichi Sasaki, MD Takayuki Shibusawa, MD Taka-aki Nakada, MD Toshihiko Mayumi, MD Osamu Takasu, MD Kenichi Matsuda, MD Takashi Shimazui, MD Hiroki Otsubo, MD Yuto Teshima, MD Masakazu Nabeta, MD Takeshi Moriguchi, MD Shigeto Oda, MD |
author_sort |
Ryo Yamamoto, MD |
title |
Accuracy for Mortality Prediction With Additive Biomarkers Including Interleukin-6 in Critically Ill Patients: A Multicenter Prospective Observational Study |
title_short |
Accuracy for Mortality Prediction With Additive Biomarkers Including Interleukin-6 in Critically Ill Patients: A Multicenter Prospective Observational Study |
title_full |
Accuracy for Mortality Prediction With Additive Biomarkers Including Interleukin-6 in Critically Ill Patients: A Multicenter Prospective Observational Study |
title_fullStr |
Accuracy for Mortality Prediction With Additive Biomarkers Including Interleukin-6 in Critically Ill Patients: A Multicenter Prospective Observational Study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Accuracy for Mortality Prediction With Additive Biomarkers Including Interleukin-6 in Critically Ill Patients: A Multicenter Prospective Observational Study |
title_sort |
accuracy for mortality prediction with additive biomarkers including interleukin-6 in critically ill patients: a multicenter prospective observational study |
publisher |
Wolters Kluwer |
series |
Critical Care Explorations |
issn |
2639-8028 |
publishDate |
2021-04-01 |
description |
Objectives:. Several inflammation markers have been reported to be associated with unfavorable clinical outcomes in critically ill patients. We aimed to elucidate whether serum interleukin-6 concentration considered with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score can better predict mortality in critically ill patients.
Design:. A prospective observational study.
Setting:. Five university hospitals in 2016–2018.
Patients:. Critically ill adult patients who met greater than or equal to two systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria at admission were included, and those who died or were discharged within 48 hours were excluded.
Interventions:. Inflammatory biomarkers including interleukin (interleukin)–6, -8, and -10; tumor necrosis factor–α; C-reactive protein; and procalcitonin were blindly measured daily for 3 days. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score at day 2 according to 28-day mortality was calculated as baseline. Combination models of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and additional biomarkers were developed using logistic regression, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve calculated in each model was compared with the baseline.
Measurements and Main Results:. Among 161 patients included in the study, 18 (11.2%) did not survive at day 28. Univariate analysis for each biomarker identified that the interleukin-6 (days 1–3), interleukin-8 (days 0–3), and interleukin-10 (days 1–3) were higher in nonsurvivors than in survivors. Analyses of 28-day mortality prediction by a single biomarker showed interleukin-6, -8, and -10 at days 1–3 had a significant discrimination power, and the interleukin-6 at day 3 had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.766 [0.656–0.876]). The baseline area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score predicting 28-day mortality was 0.776 (0.672–0.880). The combination model using additional interleukin-6 at day 3 had higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve than baseline (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.844, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve improvement = 0.068 [0.002–0.133]), whereas other biomarkers did not improve accuracy in predicting 28-day mortality.
Conclusions:. Accuracy for 28-day mortality prediction was improved by adding serum interleukin-6 concentration to Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. |
url |
http://journals.lww.com/10.1097/CCE.0000000000000387 |
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doaj-32bd56204240476abde6507872323e312021-05-25T02:07:31ZengWolters KluwerCritical Care Explorations2639-80282021-04-0134e038710.1097/CCE.0000000000000387202104000-00016Accuracy for Mortality Prediction With Additive Biomarkers Including Interleukin-6 in Critically Ill Patients: A Multicenter Prospective Observational StudyRyo Yamamoto, MD0Junichi Sasaki, MD1Takayuki Shibusawa, MD2Taka-aki Nakada, MD3Toshihiko Mayumi, MD4Osamu Takasu, MD5Kenichi Matsuda, MD6Takashi Shimazui, MD7Hiroki Otsubo, MD8Yuto Teshima, MD9Masakazu Nabeta, MD10Takeshi Moriguchi, MD11Shigeto Oda, MD121 Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.1 Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.1 Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.2 Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chiba University Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba, Japan.3 Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Occupational and Environmental Health, Kitakyushu, Japan.4 Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Kurume University School of Medicine, Kurume, Japan.5 Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, University of Yamanashi, Faculty of Medicine, Yamanashi, Japan.2 Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chiba University Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba, Japan.3 Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Occupational and Environmental Health, Kitakyushu, Japan.3 Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Occupational and Environmental Health, Kitakyushu, Japan.4 Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Kurume University School of Medicine, Kurume, Japan.5 Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, University of Yamanashi, Faculty of Medicine, Yamanashi, Japan.2 Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chiba University Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba, Japan.Objectives:. Several inflammation markers have been reported to be associated with unfavorable clinical outcomes in critically ill patients. We aimed to elucidate whether serum interleukin-6 concentration considered with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score can better predict mortality in critically ill patients. Design:. A prospective observational study. Setting:. Five university hospitals in 2016–2018. Patients:. Critically ill adult patients who met greater than or equal to two systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria at admission were included, and those who died or were discharged within 48 hours were excluded. Interventions:. Inflammatory biomarkers including interleukin (interleukin)–6, -8, and -10; tumor necrosis factor–α; C-reactive protein; and procalcitonin were blindly measured daily for 3 days. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score at day 2 according to 28-day mortality was calculated as baseline. Combination models of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and additional biomarkers were developed using logistic regression, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve calculated in each model was compared with the baseline. Measurements and Main Results:. Among 161 patients included in the study, 18 (11.2%) did not survive at day 28. Univariate analysis for each biomarker identified that the interleukin-6 (days 1–3), interleukin-8 (days 0–3), and interleukin-10 (days 1–3) were higher in nonsurvivors than in survivors. Analyses of 28-day mortality prediction by a single biomarker showed interleukin-6, -8, and -10 at days 1–3 had a significant discrimination power, and the interleukin-6 at day 3 had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.766 [0.656–0.876]). The baseline area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score predicting 28-day mortality was 0.776 (0.672–0.880). The combination model using additional interleukin-6 at day 3 had higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve than baseline (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.844, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve improvement = 0.068 [0.002–0.133]), whereas other biomarkers did not improve accuracy in predicting 28-day mortality. Conclusions:. Accuracy for 28-day mortality prediction was improved by adding serum interleukin-6 concentration to Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score.http://journals.lww.com/10.1097/CCE.0000000000000387 |