What forecasting the prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease may tell us about its evolution on a national scale

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is increasingly prevalent within western societies. Its complex and chronic facets in addition to its increasing prevalence place a great economic burden on our healthcare systems. Our aim was to estimate the national prevalence of IBD through predictive models. We u...

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Main Authors:	Mafalda Santiago, Fernando Magro, Luís Correia, Francisco Portela, Paula Ministro, Paula Lago, Cláudia Camila Dias
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	SAGE Publishing 2019-06-01
Series:	Therapeutic Advances in Gastroenterology
Online Access:	https://doi.org/10.1177/1756284819860044

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spelling	doaj-32d08e835ed94e43858384531ef7a0532020-11-25T03:47:13ZengSAGE PublishingTherapeutic Advances in Gastroenterology1756-28482019-06-011210.1177/1756284819860044What forecasting the prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease may tell us about its evolution on a national scaleMafalda SantiagoFernando MagroLuís CorreiaFrancisco PortelaPaula MinistroPaula LagoCláudia Camila DiasInflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is increasingly prevalent within western societies. Its complex and chronic facets in addition to its increasing prevalence place a great economic burden on our healthcare systems. Our aim was to estimate the national prevalence of IBD through predictive models. We used prevalence data which spans the years 2003–2007 to estimate prevalence until 2030 by means of four forecasting methods. Prevalence rates are estimated to be 4–6-times higher in 2030 when compared with 2003 with an average annual percent change of 5%. IBD is poised to have a substantial impact on healthcare systems in the near future, given its rapidly increasing prevalence. Forecasting methods will allow for a proactive stance on the development of health policies that will be needed to provide high quality and cost-effective care to these patients, while ensuring the economic viability of healthcare systems.https://doi.org/10.1177/1756284819860044
collection	DOAJ
language	English
format	Article
sources	DOAJ
author	Mafalda Santiago Fernando Magro Luís Correia Francisco Portela Paula Ministro Paula Lago Cláudia Camila Dias
spellingShingle	Mafalda Santiago Fernando Magro Luís Correia Francisco Portela Paula Ministro Paula Lago Cláudia Camila Dias What forecasting the prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease may tell us about its evolution on a national scale Therapeutic Advances in Gastroenterology
author_facet	Mafalda Santiago Fernando Magro Luís Correia Francisco Portela Paula Ministro Paula Lago Cláudia Camila Dias
author_sort	Mafalda Santiago
title	What forecasting the prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease may tell us about its evolution on a national scale
title_short	What forecasting the prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease may tell us about its evolution on a national scale
title_full	What forecasting the prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease may tell us about its evolution on a national scale
title_fullStr	What forecasting the prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease may tell us about its evolution on a national scale
title_full_unstemmed	What forecasting the prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease may tell us about its evolution on a national scale
title_sort	what forecasting the prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease may tell us about its evolution on a national scale
publisher	SAGE Publishing
series	Therapeutic Advances in Gastroenterology
issn	1756-2848
publishDate	2019-06-01
description	Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is increasingly prevalent within western societies. Its complex and chronic facets in addition to its increasing prevalence place a great economic burden on our healthcare systems. Our aim was to estimate the national prevalence of IBD through predictive models. We used prevalence data which spans the years 2003–2007 to estimate prevalence until 2030 by means of four forecasting methods. Prevalence rates are estimated to be 4–6-times higher in 2030 when compared with 2003 with an average annual percent change of 5%. IBD is poised to have a substantial impact on healthcare systems in the near future, given its rapidly increasing prevalence. Forecasting methods will allow for a proactive stance on the development of health policies that will be needed to provide high quality and cost-effective care to these patients, while ensuring the economic viability of healthcare systems.
url	https://doi.org/10.1177/1756284819860044
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What forecasting the prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease may tell us about its evolution on a national scale

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