Measles on the edge: coastal heterogeneities and infection dynamics.
Mathematical models can help elucidate the spatio-temporal dynamics of epidemics as well as the impact of control measures. The gravity model for directly transmitted diseases is currently one of the most parsimonious models for spatial epidemic spread. This model uses distance-weighted, population...
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2008-01-01
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doaj-3541394491854ff2a61c73f00ec4fff62020-11-24T21:55:35ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032008-01-0134e194110.1371/journal.pone.0001941Measles on the edge: coastal heterogeneities and infection dynamics.Nita BhartiYingcun XiaOttar N BjornstadBryan T GrenfellMathematical models can help elucidate the spatio-temporal dynamics of epidemics as well as the impact of control measures. The gravity model for directly transmitted diseases is currently one of the most parsimonious models for spatial epidemic spread. This model uses distance-weighted, population size-dependent coupling to estimate host movement and disease incidence in metapopulations. The model captures overall measles dynamics in terms of underlying human movement in pre-vaccination England and Wales (previously established). In spatial models, edges often present a special challenge. Therefore, to test the model's robustness, we analyzed gravity model incidence predictions for coastal cities in England and Wales. Results show that, although predictions are accurate for inland towns, they significantly underestimate coastal persistence. We examine incidence, outbreak seasonality, and public transportation records, to show that the model's inaccuracies stem from an underestimation of total contacts per individual along the coast. We rescue this predicted 'edge effect' by increasing coastal contacts to approximate the number of per capita inland contacts. These results illustrate the impact of 'edge effects' on epidemic metapopulations in general and illustrate directions for the refinement of spatiotemporal epidemic models.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC2275791?pdf=render |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Nita Bharti Yingcun Xia Ottar N Bjornstad Bryan T Grenfell |
spellingShingle |
Nita Bharti Yingcun Xia Ottar N Bjornstad Bryan T Grenfell Measles on the edge: coastal heterogeneities and infection dynamics. PLoS ONE |
author_facet |
Nita Bharti Yingcun Xia Ottar N Bjornstad Bryan T Grenfell |
author_sort |
Nita Bharti |
title |
Measles on the edge: coastal heterogeneities and infection dynamics. |
title_short |
Measles on the edge: coastal heterogeneities and infection dynamics. |
title_full |
Measles on the edge: coastal heterogeneities and infection dynamics. |
title_fullStr |
Measles on the edge: coastal heterogeneities and infection dynamics. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Measles on the edge: coastal heterogeneities and infection dynamics. |
title_sort |
measles on the edge: coastal heterogeneities and infection dynamics. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
series |
PLoS ONE |
issn |
1932-6203 |
publishDate |
2008-01-01 |
description |
Mathematical models can help elucidate the spatio-temporal dynamics of epidemics as well as the impact of control measures. The gravity model for directly transmitted diseases is currently one of the most parsimonious models for spatial epidemic spread. This model uses distance-weighted, population size-dependent coupling to estimate host movement and disease incidence in metapopulations. The model captures overall measles dynamics in terms of underlying human movement in pre-vaccination England and Wales (previously established). In spatial models, edges often present a special challenge. Therefore, to test the model's robustness, we analyzed gravity model incidence predictions for coastal cities in England and Wales. Results show that, although predictions are accurate for inland towns, they significantly underestimate coastal persistence. We examine incidence, outbreak seasonality, and public transportation records, to show that the model's inaccuracies stem from an underestimation of total contacts per individual along the coast. We rescue this predicted 'edge effect' by increasing coastal contacts to approximate the number of per capita inland contacts. These results illustrate the impact of 'edge effects' on epidemic metapopulations in general and illustrate directions for the refinement of spatiotemporal epidemic models. |
url |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC2275791?pdf=render |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT nitabharti measlesontheedgecoastalheterogeneitiesandinfectiondynamics AT yingcunxia measlesontheedgecoastalheterogeneitiesandinfectiondynamics AT ottarnbjornstad measlesontheedgecoastalheterogeneitiesandinfectiondynamics AT bryantgrenfell measlesontheedgecoastalheterogeneitiesandinfectiondynamics |
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1725861637165940736 |