Predicting required licensed spectrum for the future considering big data growth

• Main Authors: Ibraheem Shayea, Tharek Abd. Rahman, Marwan Hadri Azmi, Chua Tien Han, Arsany Arsad
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute (ETRI) 2019-01-01
• Series: ETRI Journal
• Subjects: big data growth; forecasting spectrum; licensed spectrum; required spectrum for future; spectrum gap
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.4218/etrij.2017-0273

This paper proposes a new spectrum forecasting (SF) model to estimate the spectrum demands for future mobile broadband (MBB) services. The model requires five main input metrics, that is, the current available spectrum, site number growth, mobile data traffic growth, average network utilization, and spectrum efficiency growth. Using the proposed SF model, the future MBB spectrum demand for Malaysia in 2020 is forecasted based on the input market data of four major mobile telecommunication operators represented by A–D, which account for approximately 95% of the local mobile market share. Statistical data to generate the five input metrics were obtained from prominent agencies, such as the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission, OpenSignal, Analysys Mason, GSMA, and Huawei. Our forecasting results indicate that by 2020, Malaysia would require approximately 307 MHz of additional spectrum to fulfill the enormous increase in mobile broadband data demands.