PROBLEMS OF TAX BUDGET REVENUE FORECASTING IN RUSSIA
The paper consider the methodological problems of forecasting of tax budget revenues in Russia. The particular attention is paid to the usage of time series analysis and to the discussion of issues related to benchmarking, «edge effects», structural and cycle components of tax revenue. It is conclud...
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Novosibirsk State University Press
2015-09-01
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Series: | Vestnik Novosibirskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. Seriâ: Socialʹno-Èkonomičeskie Nauki |
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Online Access: | https://nsu.ru/ef/vestnik_ngu_ef/2015_3_1 |
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doaj-392b66fa99584e0eb21b5145128b77632020-11-24T21:24:25ZrusNovosibirsk State University PressVestnik Novosibirskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. Seriâ: Socialʹno-Èkonomičeskie Nauki1818-78621818-78622015-09-0115 (3)51010.25205/1818-7862-2015-15-3-5-10PROBLEMS OF TAX BUDGET REVENUE FORECASTING IN RUSSIAKolomak E. A.0Sentyureva N. A.1Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering SB RAS; Novosibirsk State UniversityRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationThe paper consider the methodological problems of forecasting of tax budget revenues in Russia. The particular attention is paid to the usage of time series analysis and to the discussion of issues related to benchmarking, «edge effects», structural and cycle components of tax revenue. It is concluded that the objective limitation for the correct and reliable long-term forecasting is the lack of sufficiently long time series of comparable data. Forecasting time horizon should correspond to the period for which trends are identified and parameters of the dynamics are estimated. Short-term forecasts have the necessary information, and they can be used in the practical work of public authorities.https://nsu.ru/ef/vestnik_ngu_ef/2015_3_1бюджетналоговые доходыпрогнозированиеэмпирические методы анализаbudgettax revenuesforecastingempirical methods |
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DOAJ |
language |
Russian |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Kolomak E. A. Sentyureva N. A. |
spellingShingle |
Kolomak E. A. Sentyureva N. A. PROBLEMS OF TAX BUDGET REVENUE FORECASTING IN RUSSIA Vestnik Novosibirskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. Seriâ: Socialʹno-Èkonomičeskie Nauki бюджет налоговые доходы прогнозирование эмпирические методы анализа budget tax revenues forecasting empirical methods |
author_facet |
Kolomak E. A. Sentyureva N. A. |
author_sort |
Kolomak E. A. |
title |
PROBLEMS OF TAX BUDGET REVENUE FORECASTING IN RUSSIA |
title_short |
PROBLEMS OF TAX BUDGET REVENUE FORECASTING IN RUSSIA |
title_full |
PROBLEMS OF TAX BUDGET REVENUE FORECASTING IN RUSSIA |
title_fullStr |
PROBLEMS OF TAX BUDGET REVENUE FORECASTING IN RUSSIA |
title_full_unstemmed |
PROBLEMS OF TAX BUDGET REVENUE FORECASTING IN RUSSIA |
title_sort |
problems of tax budget revenue forecasting in russia |
publisher |
Novosibirsk State University Press |
series |
Vestnik Novosibirskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. Seriâ: Socialʹno-Èkonomičeskie Nauki |
issn |
1818-7862 1818-7862 |
publishDate |
2015-09-01 |
description |
The paper consider the methodological problems of forecasting of tax budget revenues in Russia. The particular attention is paid to the usage of time series analysis and to the discussion of issues related to benchmarking, «edge effects», structural and cycle components of tax revenue. It is concluded that the objective limitation for the correct and reliable long-term forecasting is the lack of sufficiently long time series of comparable data. Forecasting time horizon should correspond to the period for which trends are identified and parameters of the dynamics are estimated. Short-term forecasts have the necessary information, and they can be used in the practical work of public authorities. |
topic |
бюджет налоговые доходы прогнозирование эмпирические методы анализа budget tax revenues forecasting empirical methods |
url |
https://nsu.ru/ef/vestnik_ngu_ef/2015_3_1 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT kolomakea problemsoftaxbudgetrevenueforecastinginrussia AT sentyurevana problemsoftaxbudgetrevenueforecastinginrussia |
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1725988403279822848 |