PROBLEMS OF TAX BUDGET REVENUE FORECASTING IN RUSSIA

• Main Authors: Kolomak E. A., Sentyureva N. A.
• Format: Article
• Language: Russian
• Published: Novosibirsk State University Press 2015-09-01
• Series: Vestnik Novosibirskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. Seriâ: Socialʹno-Èkonomičeskie Nauki
• Subjects: бюджет; налоговые доходы; прогнозирование; эмпирические методы анализа; budget; tax revenues; forecasting; empirical methods
• Online Access: https://nsu.ru/ef/vestnik_ngu_ef/2015_3_1

The paper consider the methodological problems of forecasting of tax budget revenues in Russia. The particular attention is paid to the usage of time series analysis and to the discussion of issues related to benchmarking, «edge effects», structural and cycle components of tax revenue. It is concluded that the objective limitation for the correct and reliable long-term forecasting is the lack of sufficiently long time series of comparable data. Forecasting time horizon should correspond to the period for which trends are identified and parameters of the dynamics are estimated. Short-term forecasts have the necessary information, and they can be used in the practical work of public authorities.