Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution and Range Shift of <i>Dendroctonus ponderosae</i> (Coleoptera: Scolytidae)
<i>Dendroctonus ponderosae</i> Hopkins (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) is one of the most important bark beetles in North America and causes considerable economic and ecological losses during outbreaks. The distribution of this pest species is likely to be altered by climate change, which may t...
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doaj-3a1b43e0e6f646168384f9370bdbbc962020-11-24T22:10:06ZengMDPI AGForests1999-49072019-10-01101086010.3390/f10100860f10100860Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution and Range Shift of <i>Dendroctonus ponderosae</i> (Coleoptera: Scolytidae)Yuting Zhou0Xuezhen Ge1Ya Zou2Siwei Guo3Tao Wang4Shixiang Zong5Key Laboratory of Beijing for the Control of Forest Pests, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, ChinaDepartment of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, CanadaKey Laboratory of Beijing for the Control of Forest Pests, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, ChinaKey Laboratory of Beijing for the Control of Forest Pests, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, ChinaMentougou Forestry Station, Beijing 102300, ChinaKey Laboratory of Beijing for the Control of Forest Pests, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China<i>Dendroctonus ponderosae</i> Hopkins (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) is one of the most important bark beetles in North America and causes considerable economic and ecological losses during outbreaks. The distribution of this pest species is likely to be altered by climate change, which may threaten currently unaffected areas. In this study, we used CLIMEX to project the potential global distribution of <i>D. ponderosae</i> according to both historical climate data (1987−2016) and future climate warming estimates (2021−2100) to evaluate the impact of climate change on this species. Regions with suitable climate for <i>D. ponderosae</i> are distributed in all continents except Antarctica under both historical and future climate conditions, and these are predicted to change continuously with climate change. Overall, climate suitability will increase in middle- and high-latitude regions and decrease in low-latitude regions, and regions most sensitive to climate change are located in the mid-latitude zone. Moreover, the shift directions and ranges of climate-suitable regions under future conditions will differ among continents, and the shift distances in the north−south direction are larger than these in the east−west direction for Africa, Asia, Europe, South America, and Oceania, indicating that shift direction is possibly mainly affected by temperature. These projected distributions may provide theoretical guidance for early-warning intervention and risk assessment.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/10/10/860climate changeclimexdendroctonus ponderosaespecies distributionshift path |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Yuting Zhou Xuezhen Ge Ya Zou Siwei Guo Tao Wang Shixiang Zong |
spellingShingle |
Yuting Zhou Xuezhen Ge Ya Zou Siwei Guo Tao Wang Shixiang Zong Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution and Range Shift of <i>Dendroctonus ponderosae</i> (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) Forests climate change climex dendroctonus ponderosae species distribution shift path |
author_facet |
Yuting Zhou Xuezhen Ge Ya Zou Siwei Guo Tao Wang Shixiang Zong |
author_sort |
Yuting Zhou |
title |
Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution and Range Shift of <i>Dendroctonus ponderosae</i> (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) |
title_short |
Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution and Range Shift of <i>Dendroctonus ponderosae</i> (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) |
title_full |
Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution and Range Shift of <i>Dendroctonus ponderosae</i> (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) |
title_fullStr |
Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution and Range Shift of <i>Dendroctonus ponderosae</i> (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution and Range Shift of <i>Dendroctonus ponderosae</i> (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) |
title_sort |
climate change impacts on the potential distribution and range shift of <i>dendroctonus ponderosae</i> (coleoptera: scolytidae) |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
series |
Forests |
issn |
1999-4907 |
publishDate |
2019-10-01 |
description |
<i>Dendroctonus ponderosae</i> Hopkins (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) is one of the most important bark beetles in North America and causes considerable economic and ecological losses during outbreaks. The distribution of this pest species is likely to be altered by climate change, which may threaten currently unaffected areas. In this study, we used CLIMEX to project the potential global distribution of <i>D. ponderosae</i> according to both historical climate data (1987−2016) and future climate warming estimates (2021−2100) to evaluate the impact of climate change on this species. Regions with suitable climate for <i>D. ponderosae</i> are distributed in all continents except Antarctica under both historical and future climate conditions, and these are predicted to change continuously with climate change. Overall, climate suitability will increase in middle- and high-latitude regions and decrease in low-latitude regions, and regions most sensitive to climate change are located in the mid-latitude zone. Moreover, the shift directions and ranges of climate-suitable regions under future conditions will differ among continents, and the shift distances in the north−south direction are larger than these in the east−west direction for Africa, Asia, Europe, South America, and Oceania, indicating that shift direction is possibly mainly affected by temperature. These projected distributions may provide theoretical guidance for early-warning intervention and risk assessment. |
topic |
climate change climex dendroctonus ponderosae species distribution shift path |
url |
https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/10/10/860 |
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